Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.59%
Fair Odds
2.89
Draw
30.81%
Fair Odds
3.25
Away Win
34.59%
Fair Odds
2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.35%
Fair Odds 7.49
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.89 | — | |
| Draw | 3.25 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.89 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.35% | 7.49 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 11.92% | 8.39 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 11.92% | 8.39 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 10.65% | 9.39 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 7.48% | 13.37 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.48% | 13.37 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.68% | 14.98 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 6.68% | 14.98 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.19% | 23.88 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 2.79% | 35.82 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.65%
9.39
|
11.92%
8.39
|
6.68%
14.98
|
2.49%
40.12
|
0.7%
143.27
|
0.16%
639.8
|
| 1 |
11.92%
8.39
|
13.35%
7.49
|
7.48%
13.37
|
2.79%
35.82
|
0.78%
127.93
|
0.18%
571.1
|
| 2 |
6.68%
14.98
|
7.48%
13.37
|
4.19%
23.88
|
1.56%
63.96
|
0.44%
228.41
|
0.1%
1019.37
|
| 3 |
2.49%
40.12
|
2.79%
35.82
|
1.56%
63.96
|
0.58%
171.32
|
0.16%
612.0
|
0.04%
2732.24
|
| 4 |
0.7%
143.27
|
0.78%
127.93
|
0.44%
228.41
|
0.16%
612.0
|
0.05%
2183.41
|
0.01%
9708.74
|
| 5 |
0.16%
639.8
|
0.18%
571.1
|
0.1%
1019.37
|
0.04%
2732.24
|
0.01%
9708.74
|
0.0%
43478.26
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.21%
·
Fair:
472.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.37% | 32.63% |
| 1.5 | 30.83% | 69.17% |
| 2.5 | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| 3.5 | 2.72% | 97.28% |
| 4.5 | 0.59% | 99.41% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.37% | 32.63% |
| 1.5 | 30.83% | 69.17% |
| 2.5 | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| 3.5 | 2.72% | 97.28% |
| 4.5 | 0.59% | 99.41% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.65% | 9.39 |
| 1 | 23.85% | 4.19 |
| 2 | 26.71% | 3.74 |
| 3 | 19.94% | 5.01 |
| 4 | 11.17% | 8.95 |
| 5+ | 7.69% | 13.01 |
|
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
34.59%
Draw
30.81%
Away Win
34.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.8%
Under 2.5
61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
45.39%
No
54.61%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.51% 22.19 | 9.95% 10.05 | 85.55% 1.17 |
| -1.5 | 14.45% 6.92 | — | 85.55% 1.17 |
| -1.0 | 14.45% 6.92 | 21.14% 4.73 | 64.41% 1.55 |
| -0.5 | 35.59% 2.81 | — | 64.41% 1.55 |
| 0 (PK) | 35.59% 2.81 | 28.82% 3.47 | 35.59% 2.81 |
| +0.5 | 64.41% 1.55 | — | 35.59% 2.81 |
| +1.0 | 64.41% 1.55 | 21.14% 4.73 | 14.45% 6.92 |
| +1.5 | 85.55% 1.17 | — | 14.45% 6.92 |
| +2.0 | 85.55% 1.17 | 9.95% 10.05 | 4.51% 22.19 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
