Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.93%
Fair Odds 2.09
Draw
26.47%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
25.6%
Fair Odds 3.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.86% Fair Odds 8.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.09 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 3.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.86% 8.43
2 1-0 10.69% 9.36
3 2-1 9.43% 10.6
4 2-0 8.5% 11.77
5 0-1 7.46% 13.41
6 0-0 6.72% 14.88
7 1-2 6.58% 15.19
8 2-2 5.23% 19.11
9 3-1 5.0% 20.01
10 3-0 4.5% 22.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.72%
14.88
7.46%
13.41
4.14%
24.15
1.53%
65.28
0.43%
235.24
0.09%
1059.32
1
10.69%
9.36
11.86%
8.43
6.58%
15.19
2.44%
41.06
0.68%
147.95
0.15%
666.22
2
8.5%
11.77
9.43%
10.6
5.23%
19.11
1.94%
51.64
0.54%
186.12
0.12%
838.22
3
4.5%
22.21
5.0%
20.01
2.77%
36.05
1.03%
97.44
0.28%
351.12
0.06%
1582.28
4
1.79%
55.88
1.99%
50.34
1.1%
90.69
0.41%
245.16
0.11%
883.39
0.03%
3984.06
5
0.57%
175.72
0.63%
158.3
0.35%
285.23
0.13%
771.01
0.04%
2777.78
0.01%
12500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 145.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.72% 14.88
1 18.15% 5.51
2 24.50% 4.08
3 22.05% 4.54
4 14.88% 6.72
5+ 13.71% 7.29
Over 2.5 50.64% Under 2.5 49.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.93%
Draw 26.47%
Away Win 25.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.64%
Under 2.5 49.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.37%
No 46.63%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.4% 9.61 14.74% 6.79 74.86% 1.34
-1.5 25.14% 3.98 — 74.86% 1.34
-1.0 25.14% 3.98 23.34% 4.29 51.53% 1.94
-0.5 48.47% 2.06 — 51.53% 1.94
0 (PK) 48.47% 2.06 24.96% 4.01 26.56% 3.76
+0.5 73.44% 1.36 — 26.56% 3.76
+1.0 73.44% 1.36 16.29% 6.14 10.27% 9.73
+1.5 89.73% 1.11 — 10.27% 9.73
+2.0 89.73% 1.11 7.18% 13.92 3.09% 32.35

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.