Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.68%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
26.56%
Fair Odds 3.77
Away Win
25.76%
Fair Odds 3.88
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.91% Fair Odds 8.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 3.77 —
Away Win 3.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.91% 8.4
2 1-0 10.73% 9.32
3 2-1 9.4% 10.63
4 2-0 8.47% 11.8
5 0-1 7.53% 13.27
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 1-2 6.61% 15.13
8 2-2 5.22% 19.16
9 3-1 4.95% 20.19
10 3-0 4.46% 22.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
7.53%
13.27
4.18%
23.91
1.55%
64.63
0.43%
232.88
0.1%
1049.32
1
10.73%
9.32
11.91%
8.4
6.61%
15.13
2.44%
40.9
0.68%
147.41
0.15%
664.01
2
8.47%
11.8
9.4%
10.63
5.22%
19.16
1.93%
51.78
0.54%
186.6
0.12%
840.34
3
4.46%
22.41
4.95%
20.19
2.75%
36.38
1.02%
98.31
0.28%
354.23
0.06%
1594.9
4
1.76%
56.73
1.96%
51.11
1.09%
92.09
0.4%
248.88
0.11%
896.86
0.02%
4032.26
5
0.56%
179.53
0.62%
161.73
0.34%
291.46
0.13%
787.4
0.04%
2840.91
0.01%
12820.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.67% · Fair: 149.28
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.68%
Draw 26.56%
Away Win 25.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.23%
No 46.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.26% 9.75 14.65% 6.83 75.09% 1.33
-1.5 24.91% 4.02 — 75.09% 1.33
-1.0 24.91% 4.02 23.32% 4.29 51.78% 1.93
-0.5 48.22% 2.07 — 51.78% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.22% 2.07 25.05% 3.99 26.73% 3.74
+0.5 73.27% 1.36 — 26.73% 3.74
+1.0 73.27% 1.36 16.38% 6.1 10.34% 9.67
+1.5 89.66% 1.12 — 10.34% 9.67
+2.0 89.66% 1.12 7.23% 13.83 3.11% 32.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.