Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.46%
Fair Odds 2.2
Draw
27.35%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
27.18%
Fair Odds 3.68
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.28% Fair Odds 8.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.2 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 3.68 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.28% 8.14
2 1-0 11.07% 9.04
3 2-1 9.15% 10.93
4 2-0 8.24% 12.13
5 0-1 8.24% 12.13
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.82% 14.67
8 2-2 5.08% 19.69
9 0-2 4.58% 21.86
10 3-1 4.55% 22.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.24%
12.13
4.58%
21.86
1.69%
59.07
0.47%
212.86
0.1%
958.77
1
11.07%
9.04
12.28%
8.14
6.82%
14.67
2.52%
39.64
0.7%
142.86
0.16%
643.5
2
8.24%
12.13
9.15%
10.93
5.08%
19.69
1.88%
53.21
0.52%
191.75
0.12%
863.56
3
4.09%
24.42
4.55%
22.0
2.52%
39.64
0.93%
107.14
0.26%
386.1
0.06%
1739.13
4
1.53%
65.56
1.69%
59.06
0.94%
106.42
0.35%
287.6
0.1%
1036.27
0.02%
4672.9
5
0.45%
219.97
0.5%
198.18
0.28%
357.14
0.1%
965.25
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
15625.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 187.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.46%
Draw 27.35%
Away Win 27.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.93%
No 48.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.97% 11.14 13.84% 7.22 77.18% 1.3
-1.5 22.82% 4.38 — 77.18% 1.3
-1.0 22.82% 4.38 23.12% 4.33 54.07% 1.85
-0.5 45.93% 2.18 — 54.07% 1.85
0 (PK) 45.93% 2.18 25.83% 3.87 28.24% 3.54
+0.5 71.76% 1.39 — 28.24% 3.54
+1.0 71.76% 1.39 17.22% 5.81 11.02% 9.08
+1.5 88.98% 1.12 — 11.02% 9.08
+2.0 88.98% 1.12 7.68% 13.02 3.33% 30.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.