Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.95%
Fair Odds 2.28
Draw
27.87%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
28.18%
Fair Odds 3.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.52% Fair Odds 7.99

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.28 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 3.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.52% 7.99
2 1-0 11.28% 8.87
3 2-1 8.95% 11.17
4 0-1 8.75% 11.42
5 2-0 8.06% 12.4
6 0-0 7.89% 12.68
7 1-2 6.95% 14.39
8 2-2 4.97% 20.13
9 0-2 4.86% 20.58
10 3-1 4.27% 23.44
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.89%
12.68
8.75%
11.42
4.86%
20.58
1.8%
55.63
0.5%
200.44
0.11%
903.34
1
11.28%
8.87
12.52%
7.99
6.95%
14.39
2.57%
38.9
0.71%
140.17
0.16%
631.31
2
8.06%
12.4
8.95%
11.17
4.97%
20.13
1.84%
54.41
0.51%
196.04
0.11%
883.39
3
3.84%
26.02
4.27%
23.44
2.37%
42.23
0.88%
114.14
0.24%
411.35
0.05%
1851.85
4
1.37%
72.77
1.53%
65.56
0.85%
118.13
0.31%
319.28
0.09%
1150.75
0.02%
5181.35
5
0.39%
254.45
0.44%
229.25
0.24%
413.05
0.09%
1116.07
0.02%
4016.06
0.01%
18181.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 219.54
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.89% 12.68
1 20.03% 4.99
2 25.44% 3.93
3 21.54% 4.64
4 13.68% 7.31
5+ 11.42% 8.75
Over 2.5 46.64% Under 2.5 53.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.95%
Draw 27.87%
Away Win 28.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.64%
Under 2.5 53.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.0%
No 49.0%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.16% 12.25 13.27% 7.53 78.57% 1.27
-1.5 21.43% 4.67 — 78.57% 1.27
-1.0 21.43% 4.67 22.94% 4.36 55.63% 1.8
-0.5 44.37% 2.25 — 55.63% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.37% 2.25 26.34% 3.8 29.29% 3.41
+0.5 70.71% 1.41 — 29.29% 3.41
+1.0 70.71% 1.41 17.8% 5.62 11.49% 8.71
+1.5 88.51% 1.13 — 11.49% 8.71
+2.0 88.51% 1.13 8.0% 12.5 3.49% 28.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.