Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.7%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
30.47%
Fair Odds 3.28
Away Win
33.84%
Fair Odds 2.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.37% Fair Odds 7.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 3.28 —
Away Win 2.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.37% 7.48
2 1-0 12.04% 8.3
3 0-1 11.94% 8.38
4 0-0 10.75% 9.3
5 2-1 7.49% 13.36
6 1-2 7.42% 13.48
7 2-0 6.74% 14.83
8 0-2 6.62% 15.1
9 2-2 4.15% 24.07
10 3-1 2.79% 35.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.75%
9.3
11.94%
8.38
6.62%
15.1
2.45%
40.8
0.68%
147.04
0.15%
662.25
1
12.04%
8.3
13.37%
7.48
7.42%
13.48
2.75%
36.43
0.76%
131.27
0.17%
591.37
2
6.74%
14.83
7.49%
13.36
4.15%
24.07
1.54%
65.05
0.43%
234.41
0.09%
1055.97
3
2.52%
39.72
2.79%
35.78
1.55%
64.47
0.57%
174.25
0.16%
627.75
0.04%
2824.86
4
0.7%
141.84
0.78%
127.8
0.43%
230.26
0.16%
622.28
0.04%
2242.15
0.01%
10101.01
5
0.16%
633.31
0.18%
570.45
0.1%
1027.75
0.04%
2777.78
0.01%
10000.0
0.0%
45454.55
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 482.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.75% 9.30
1 23.98% 4.17
2 26.74% 3.74
3 19.87% 5.03
4 11.08% 9.03
5+ 7.58% 13.20
Over 2.5 38.53% Under 2.5 61.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.70%
Draw 30.47%
Away Win 33.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.53%
Under 2.5 61.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.17%
No 54.83%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.54% 22.03 10.01% 9.99 85.45% 1.17
-1.5 14.55% 6.87 — 85.45% 1.17
-1.0 14.55% 6.87 21.25% 4.71 64.2% 1.56
-0.5 35.8% 2.79 — 64.2% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.8% 2.79 28.9% 3.46 35.3% 2.83
+0.5 64.7% 1.55 — 35.3% 2.83
+1.0 64.7% 1.55 21.06% 4.75 14.24% 7.02
+1.5 85.76% 1.17 — 14.24% 7.02
+2.0 85.76% 1.17 9.83% 10.17 4.41% 22.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.