Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.33%
Fair Odds 3.09
Draw
31.01%
Fair Odds 3.22
Away Win
36.66%
Fair Odds 2.73
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.44% Fair Odds 7.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.09 —
Draw 3.22 —
Away Win 2.73 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.44% 7.44
2 0-1 12.8% 7.81
3 1-0 12.11% 8.26
4 0-0 11.53% 8.67
5 1-2 7.46% 13.41
6 0-2 7.1% 14.08
7 2-1 7.06% 14.17
8 2-0 6.36% 15.73
9 2-2 3.92% 25.53
10 1-3 2.76% 36.23
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.53%
8.67
12.8%
7.81
7.1%
14.08
2.63%
38.04
0.73%
137.08
0.16%
617.67
1
12.11%
8.26
13.44%
7.44
7.46%
13.41
2.76%
36.23
0.77%
130.57
0.17%
588.24
2
6.36%
15.73
7.06%
14.17
3.92%
25.53
1.45%
69.01
0.4%
248.69
0.09%
1119.82
3
2.23%
44.94
2.47%
40.49
1.37%
72.96
0.51%
197.16
0.14%
710.73
0.03%
3205.13
4
0.58%
171.2
0.65%
154.25
0.36%
277.93
0.13%
751.31
0.04%
2710.03
0.01%
12195.12
5
0.12%
815.0
0.14%
734.75
0.08%
1322.75
0.03%
3571.43
0.01%
12820.51
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.18% · Fair: 562.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.53% 8.67
1 24.91% 4.01
2 26.90% 3.72
3 19.37% 5.16
4 10.46% 9.56
5+ 6.82% 14.65
Over 2.5 36.65% Under 2.5 63.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.33%
Draw 31.01%
Away Win 36.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.65%
Under 2.5 63.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.58%
No 56.42%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.87% 25.86 9.22% 10.85 86.92% 1.15
-1.5 13.08% 7.64 — 86.92% 1.15
-1.0 13.08% 7.64 20.68% 4.84 66.24% 1.51
-0.5 33.76% 2.96 — 66.24% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.76% 2.96 29.44% 3.4 36.8% 2.72
+0.5 63.2% 1.58 — 36.8% 2.72
+1.0 63.2% 1.58 21.86% 4.57 14.94% 6.69
+1.5 85.06% 1.18 — 14.94% 6.69
+2.0 85.06% 1.18 10.3% 9.71 4.64% 21.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.