Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
52.85%
Fair Odds 1.89
Draw
24.69%
Fair Odds 4.05
Away Win
22.47%
Fair Odds 4.45
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.94% Fair Odds 9.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.89 —
Draw 4.05 —
Away Win 4.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.94% 9.14
2 1-0 9.95% 10.05
3 2-1 9.79% 10.21
4 2-0 8.9% 11.23
5 0-1 6.11% 16.36
6 1-2 6.02% 16.62
7 3-1 5.84% 17.11
8 0-0 5.56% 17.99
9 2-2 5.39% 18.56
10 3-0 5.31% 18.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
6.11%
16.36
3.36%
29.74
1.23%
81.11
0.34%
294.99
0.07%
1340.48
1
9.95%
10.05
10.94%
9.14
6.02%
16.62
2.21%
45.31
0.61%
164.77
0.13%
749.06
2
8.9%
11.23
9.79%
10.21
5.39%
18.56
1.98%
50.63
0.54%
184.09
0.12%
836.82
3
5.31%
18.82
5.84%
17.11
3.21%
31.11
1.18%
84.85
0.32%
308.55
0.07%
1402.52
4
2.38%
42.06
2.62%
38.24
1.44%
69.53
0.53%
189.61
0.14%
689.66
0.03%
3134.8
5
0.85%
117.5
0.94%
106.81
0.51%
194.21
0.19%
529.66
0.05%
1926.78
0.01%
8771.93
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.11% · Fair: 90.29
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.3% 16.7%
1.5 53.42% 46.58%
2.5 26.67% 73.33%
3.5 10.71% 89.29%
4.5 3.57% 96.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 52.85%
Draw 24.69%
Away Win 22.47%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.57%
No 44.43%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.6% 7.35 16.39% 6.1 70.01% 1.43
-1.5 29.99% 3.33 — 70.01% 1.43
-1.0 29.99% 3.33 23.54% 4.25 46.47% 2.15
-0.5 53.53% 1.87 — 46.47% 2.15
0 (PK) 53.53% 1.87 23.22% 4.31 23.25% 4.3
+0.5 76.75% 1.3 — 23.25% 4.3
+1.0 76.75% 1.3 14.47% 6.91 8.78% 11.38
+1.5 91.22% 1.1 — 8.78% 11.38
+2.0 91.22% 1.1 6.19% 16.16 2.59% 38.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.