Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.18%
Fair Odds 2.12
Draw
26.84%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
25.98%
Fair Odds 3.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.05% Fair Odds 8.3

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.12 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 3.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.05% 8.3
2 1-0 10.95% 9.13
3 2-1 9.34% 10.71
4 2-0 8.49% 11.78
5 0-1 7.77% 12.87
6 0-0 7.07% 14.15
7 1-2 6.63% 15.09
8 2-2 5.13% 19.48
9 3-1 4.82% 20.73
10 3-0 4.38% 22.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.07%
14.15
7.77%
12.87
4.27%
23.4
1.57%
63.8
0.43%
232.02
0.09%
1054.85
1
10.95%
9.13
12.05%
8.3
6.63%
15.09
2.43%
41.16
0.67%
149.68
0.15%
680.27
2
8.49%
11.78
9.34%
10.71
5.13%
19.48
1.88%
53.12
0.52%
193.16
0.11%
877.96
3
4.38%
22.81
4.82%
20.73
2.65%
37.69
0.97%
102.81
0.27%
373.83
0.06%
1700.68
4
1.7%
58.85
1.87%
53.5
1.03%
97.28
0.38%
265.32
0.1%
964.32
0.02%
4385.96
5
0.53%
189.86
0.58%
172.59
0.32%
313.77
0.12%
856.16
0.03%
3115.26
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 162.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.07% 14.15
1 18.72% 5.34
2 24.81% 4.03
3 21.91% 4.56
4 14.52% 6.89
5+ 12.97% 7.71
Over 2.5 49.4% Under 2.5 50.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.18%
Draw 26.84%
Away Win 25.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.4%
Under 2.5 50.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.55%
No 47.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.89% 10.11 14.46% 6.91 75.65% 1.32
-1.5 24.35% 4.11 — 75.65% 1.32
-1.0 24.35% 4.11 23.35% 4.28 52.3% 1.91
-0.5 47.7% 2.1 — 52.3% 1.91
0 (PK) 47.7% 2.1 25.33% 3.95 26.97% 3.71
+0.5 73.03% 1.37 — 26.97% 3.71
+1.0 73.03% 1.37 16.57% 6.03 10.4% 9.62
+1.5 89.6% 1.12 — 10.4% 9.62
+2.0 89.6% 1.12 7.28% 13.73 3.11% 32.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.