Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.94%
Fair Odds 2.18
Draw
27.29%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
26.77%
Fair Odds 3.73
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.26% Fair Odds 8.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.18 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 3.73 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.26% 8.16
2 1-0 11.14% 8.98
3 2-1 9.19% 10.88
4 2-0 8.36% 11.97
5 0-1 8.17% 12.24
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.74% 14.84
8 2-2 5.06% 19.78
9 3-1 4.6% 21.76
10 0-2 4.49% 22.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.17%
12.24
4.49%
22.25
1.65%
60.69
0.45%
220.7
0.1%
1003.01
1
11.14%
8.98
12.26%
8.16
6.74%
14.84
2.47%
40.46
0.68%
147.12
0.15%
668.9
2
8.36%
11.97
9.19%
10.88
5.06%
19.78
1.85%
53.95
0.51%
196.19
0.11%
892.06
3
4.18%
23.94
4.6%
21.76
2.53%
39.56
0.93%
107.9
0.25%
392.31
0.06%
1782.53
4
1.57%
63.83
1.72%
58.02
0.95%
105.5
0.35%
287.77
0.1%
1046.03
0.02%
4761.9
5
0.47%
212.77
0.52%
193.42
0.28%
351.62
0.1%
958.77
0.03%
3484.32
0.01%
15873.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.54% · Fair: 184.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.94%
Draw 27.29%
Away Win 26.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.83%
No 48.17%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.18% 10.9 14.01% 7.14 76.81% 1.3
-1.5 23.19% 4.31 — 76.81% 1.3
-1.0 23.19% 4.31 23.24% 4.3 53.58% 1.87
-0.5 46.42% 2.15 — 53.58% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.42% 2.15 25.77% 3.88 27.81% 3.6
+0.5 72.19% 1.39 — 27.81% 3.6
+1.0 72.19% 1.39 17.04% 5.87 10.77% 9.29
+1.5 89.23% 1.12 — 10.77% 9.29
+2.0 89.23% 1.12 7.53% 13.27 3.23% 30.93

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.