Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.06%
Fair Odds 2.44
Draw
28.95%
Fair Odds 3.45
Away Win
29.99%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.94% Fair Odds 7.73

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.44 —
Draw 3.45 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.94% 7.73
2 1-0 11.77% 8.5
3 0-1 9.88% 10.12
4 0-0 8.98% 11.13
5 2-1 8.48% 11.8
6 2-0 7.71% 12.98
7 1-2 7.12% 14.05
8 0-2 5.43% 18.4
9 2-2 4.66% 21.45
10 3-1 3.7% 27.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.98%
11.13
9.88%
10.12
5.43%
18.4
1.99%
50.19
0.55%
182.52
0.12%
829.88
1
11.77%
8.5
12.94%
7.73
7.12%
14.05
2.61%
38.31
0.72%
139.31
0.16%
633.31
2
7.71%
12.98
8.48%
11.8
4.66%
21.45
1.71%
58.49
0.47%
212.72
0.1%
967.12
3
3.37%
29.72
3.7%
27.01
2.04%
49.12
0.75%
133.96
0.21%
487.09
0.05%
2212.39
4
1.1%
90.74
1.21%
82.49
0.67%
149.97
0.24%
409.0
0.07%
1488.1
0.01%
6756.76
5
0.29%
346.26
0.32%
314.86
0.17%
572.41
0.06%
1560.06
0.02%
5681.82
0.0%
25641.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 304.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.98% 11.13
1 21.65% 4.62
2 26.08% 3.83
3 20.95% 4.77
4 12.62% 7.92
5+ 9.71% 10.30
Over 2.5 43.29% Under 2.5 56.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.06%
Draw 28.95%
Away Win 29.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.29%
Under 2.5 56.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.71%
No 51.29%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.69% 14.95 12.14% 8.24 81.17% 1.23
-1.5 18.83% 5.31 — 81.17% 1.23
-1.0 18.83% 5.31 22.54% 4.44 58.63% 1.71
-0.5 41.37% 2.42 — 58.63% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.37% 2.42 27.4% 3.65 31.22% 3.2
+0.5 68.78% 1.45 — 31.22% 3.2
+1.0 68.78% 1.45 18.93% 5.28 12.29% 8.13
+1.5 87.71% 1.14 — 12.29% 8.13
+2.0 87.71% 1.14 8.56% 11.68 3.73% 26.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.