Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.46%
Fair Odds 2.74
Draw
30.38%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
33.16%
Fair Odds 3.02
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.35% Fair Odds 7.49

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.74 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 3.02 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.35% 7.49
2 1-0 12.14% 8.24
3 0-1 11.71% 8.54
4 0-0 10.65% 9.39
5 2-1 7.61% 13.14
6 1-2 7.34% 13.62
7 2-0 6.92% 14.46
8 0-2 6.44% 15.53
9 2-2 4.19% 23.89
10 3-1 2.89% 34.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
11.71%
8.54
6.44%
15.53
2.36%
42.34
0.65%
153.99
0.14%
699.79
1
12.14%
8.24
13.35%
7.49
7.34%
13.62
2.69%
37.14
0.74%
135.06
0.16%
613.87
2
6.92%
14.46
7.61%
13.14
4.19%
23.89
1.53%
65.16
0.42%
236.97
0.09%
1077.59
3
2.63%
38.04
2.89%
34.58
1.59%
62.88
0.58%
171.5
0.16%
623.44
0.04%
2832.86
4
0.75%
133.48
0.82%
121.34
0.45%
220.6
0.17%
601.68
0.05%
2188.18
0.01%
9900.99
5
0.17%
585.48
0.19%
532.2
0.1%
968.05
0.04%
2638.52
0.01%
9615.38
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 470.37
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.00
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.46%
Draw 30.38%
Away Win 33.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.38%
No 54.62%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.78% 20.93 10.3% 9.71 84.92% 1.18
-1.5 15.08% 6.63 — 84.92% 1.18
-1.0 15.08% 6.63 21.51% 4.65 63.41% 1.58
-0.5 36.59% 2.73 — 63.41% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.59% 2.73 28.81% 3.47 34.59% 2.89
+0.5 65.41% 1.53 — 34.59% 2.89
+1.0 65.41% 1.53 20.76% 4.82 13.84% 7.23
+1.5 86.16% 1.16 — 13.84% 7.23
+2.0 86.16% 1.16 9.59% 10.43 4.24% 23.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.