Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.63%
Fair Odds 2.81
Draw
30.62%
Fair Odds 3.27
Away Win
33.75%
Fair Odds 2.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.39% Fair Odds 7.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.81 —
Draw 3.27 —
Away Win 2.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.39% 7.47
2 1-0 12.18% 8.21
3 0-1 12.07% 8.29
4 0-0 10.97% 9.12
5 2-1 7.43% 13.45
6 1-2 7.37% 13.57
7 2-0 6.76% 14.8
8 0-2 6.64% 15.07
9 2-2 4.09% 24.46
10 3-1 2.75% 36.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.97%
9.12
12.07%
8.29
6.64%
15.07
2.43%
41.09
0.67%
149.43
0.15%
679.35
1
12.18%
8.21
13.39%
7.47
7.37%
13.57
2.7%
37.02
0.74%
134.63
0.16%
612.0
2
6.76%
14.8
7.43%
13.45
4.09%
24.46
1.5%
66.7
0.41%
242.54
0.09%
1102.54
3
2.5%
39.99
2.75%
36.36
1.51%
66.1
0.55%
180.28
0.15%
655.74
0.03%
2976.19
4
0.69%
144.11
0.76%
131.01
0.42%
238.21
0.15%
649.77
0.04%
2364.07
0.01%
10752.69
5
0.15%
649.35
0.17%
590.32
0.09%
1072.96
0.03%
2923.98
0.01%
10638.3
0.0%
47619.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.2% · Fair: 504.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.97% 9.12
1 24.24% 4.12
2 26.79% 3.73
3 19.73% 5.07
4 10.90% 9.17
5+ 7.36% 13.59
Over 2.5 38.0% Under 2.5 62.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.63%
Draw 30.62%
Away Win 33.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.0%
Under 2.5 62.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.73%
No 55.27%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.47% 22.35 9.96% 10.04 85.56% 1.17
-1.5 14.44% 6.93 — 85.56% 1.17
-1.0 14.44% 6.93 21.29% 4.7 64.27% 1.56
-0.5 35.73% 2.8 — 64.27% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.73% 2.8 29.05% 3.44 35.22% 2.84
+0.5 64.78% 1.54 — 35.22% 2.84
+1.0 64.78% 1.54 21.1% 4.74 14.13% 7.08
+1.5 85.87% 1.16 — 14.13% 7.08
+2.0 85.87% 1.16 9.79% 10.22 4.34% 23.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.