Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.81%
Fair Odds 3.05
Draw
31.02%
Fair Odds 3.22
Away Win
36.17%
Fair Odds 2.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.45% Fair Odds 7.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.05 —
Draw 3.22 —
Away Win 2.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.45% 7.44
2 0-1 12.69% 7.88
3 1-0 12.22% 8.18
4 0-0 11.53% 8.67
5 1-2 7.4% 13.52
6 2-1 7.13% 14.03
7 0-2 6.98% 14.33
8 2-0 6.48% 15.43
9 2-2 3.92% 25.51
10 1-3 2.71% 36.88
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.53%
8.67
12.69%
7.88
6.98%
14.33
2.56%
39.09
0.7%
142.15
0.15%
645.99
1
12.22%
8.18
13.45%
7.44
7.4%
13.52
2.71%
36.88
0.75%
134.1
0.16%
609.38
2
6.48%
15.43
7.13%
14.03
3.92%
25.51
1.44%
69.57
0.4%
253.04
0.09%
1149.43
3
2.29%
43.68
2.52%
39.71
1.39%
72.2
0.51%
196.93
0.14%
715.82
0.03%
3257.33
4
0.61%
164.85
0.67%
149.86
0.37%
272.48
0.13%
742.94
0.04%
2702.7
0.01%
12345.68
5
0.13%
777.6
0.14%
706.71
0.08%
1285.35
0.03%
3508.77
0.01%
12820.51
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.18% · Fair: 565.61
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.53% 8.67
1 24.91% 4.01
2 26.90% 3.72
3 19.37% 5.16
4 10.46% 9.56
5+ 6.82% 14.65
Over 2.5 36.65% Under 2.5 63.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.81%
Draw 31.02%
Away Win 36.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.65%
Under 2.5 63.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.6%
No 56.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.99% 25.07 9.39% 10.64 86.62% 1.15
-1.5 13.38% 7.47 — 86.62% 1.15
-1.0 13.38% 7.47 20.88% 4.79 65.74% 1.52
-0.5 34.26% 2.92 — 65.74% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.26% 2.92 29.45% 3.4 36.29% 2.76
+0.5 63.71% 1.57 — 36.29% 2.76
+1.0 63.71% 1.57 21.67% 4.62 14.62% 6.84
+1.5 85.38% 1.17 — 14.62% 6.84
+2.0 85.38% 1.17 10.12% 9.88 4.51% 22.18

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.