Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.24%
Fair Odds 3.1
Draw
31.18%
Fair Odds 3.21
Away Win
36.58%
Fair Odds 2.73
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.46% Fair Odds 7.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.1 —
Draw 3.21 —
Away Win 2.73 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.46% 7.43
2 0-1 12.94% 7.73
3 1-0 12.24% 8.17
4 0-0 11.77% 8.5
5 1-2 7.4% 13.51
6 0-2 7.12% 14.05
7 2-1 7.0% 14.29
8 2-0 6.36% 15.72
9 2-2 3.85% 25.98
10 1-3 2.71% 36.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.77%
8.5
12.94%
7.73
7.12%
14.05
2.61%
38.31
0.72%
139.33
0.16%
633.31
1
12.24%
8.17
13.46%
7.43
7.4%
13.51
2.71%
36.84
0.75%
133.96
0.16%
609.01
2
6.36%
15.72
7.0%
14.29
3.85%
25.98
1.41%
70.85
0.39%
257.6
0.09%
1170.96
3
2.21%
45.34
2.43%
41.22
1.33%
74.93
0.49%
204.37
0.13%
742.94
0.03%
3378.38
4
0.57%
174.37
0.63%
158.53
0.35%
288.18
0.13%
786.16
0.03%
2857.14
0.01%
12987.01
5
0.12%
838.22
0.13%
762.2
0.07%
1385.04
0.03%
3773.58
0.01%
13698.63
0.0%
62500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.17% · Fair: 591.02
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.77% 8.50
1 25.18% 3.97
2 26.94% 3.71
3 19.22% 5.20
4 10.28% 9.73
5+ 6.62% 15.11
Over 2.5 36.12% Under 2.5 63.88%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.24%
Draw 31.18%
Away Win 36.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.12%
Under 2.5 63.88%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.13%
No 56.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.8% 26.29 9.16% 10.91 87.03% 1.15
-1.5 12.97% 7.71 — 87.03% 1.15
-1.0 12.97% 7.71 20.7% 4.83 66.33% 1.51
-0.5 33.67% 2.97 — 66.33% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.67% 2.97 29.6% 3.38 36.73% 2.72
+0.5 63.27% 1.58 — 36.73% 2.72
+1.0 63.27% 1.58 21.9% 4.57 14.83% 6.74
+1.5 85.17% 1.17 — 14.83% 6.74
+2.0 85.17% 1.17 10.25% 9.75 4.58% 21.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.