Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
56.82%
Fair Odds 1.76
Draw
23.15%
Fair Odds 4.32
Away Win
20.04%
Fair Odds 4.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.12% Fair Odds 9.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.76 —
Draw 4.32 —
Away Win 4.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.12% 9.88
2 2-1 9.92% 10.09
3 1-0 9.28% 10.77
4 2-0 9.1% 10.99
5 3-1 6.48% 15.44
6 3-0 5.94% 16.83
7 1-2 5.51% 18.13
8 2-2 5.4% 18.51
9 0-1 5.16% 19.37
10 0-0 4.74% 21.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.74%
21.12
5.16%
19.37
2.81%
35.54
1.02%
97.83
0.28%
359.07
0.06%
1647.45
1
9.28%
10.77
10.12%
9.88
5.51%
18.13
2.0%
49.91
0.55%
183.15
0.12%
840.34
2
9.1%
10.99
9.92%
10.09
5.4%
18.51
1.96%
50.93
0.53%
186.92
0.12%
857.63
3
5.94%
16.83
6.48%
15.44
3.53%
28.32
1.28%
77.95
0.35%
286.04
0.08%
1312.34
4
2.91%
34.34
3.17%
31.5
1.73%
57.8
0.63%
159.08
0.17%
583.77
0.04%
2680.97
5
1.14%
87.6
1.24%
80.37
0.68%
147.45
0.25%
405.84
0.07%
1490.31
0.01%
6849.32
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.61% · Fair: 62.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.91% 14.09%
1.5 58.31% 41.69%
2.5 31.25% 68.75%
3.5 13.57% 86.43%
4.5 4.91% 95.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.74% 21.12
1 14.44% 6.92
2 22.03% 4.54
3 22.40% 4.47
4 17.08% 5.86
5+ 19.32% 5.18
Over 2.5 58.79% Under 2.5 41.21%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 56.82%
Draw 23.15%
Away Win 20.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.79%
Under 2.5 41.21%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.03%
No 42.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 16.58% 6.03 17.57% 5.69 65.85% 1.52
-1.5 34.15% 2.93 — 65.85% 1.52
-1.0 34.15% 2.93 23.43% 4.27 42.42% 2.36
-0.5 57.58% 1.74 — 42.42% 2.36
0 (PK) 57.58% 1.74 21.73% 4.6 20.69% 4.83
+0.5 79.31% 1.26 — 20.69% 4.83
+1.0 79.31% 1.26 13.03% 7.67 7.66% 13.06
+1.5 92.34% 1.08 — 7.66% 13.06
+2.0 92.34% 1.08 5.44% 18.4 2.22% 44.96

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.