Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.96%
Fair Odds 1.79
Draw
23.51%
Fair Odds 4.25
Away Win
20.54%
Fair Odds 4.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.32% Fair Odds 9.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.79 —
Draw 4.25 —
Away Win 4.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.32% 9.69
2 2-1 9.9% 10.1
3 1-0 9.46% 10.57
4 2-0 9.09% 11.01
5 3-1 6.34% 15.78
6 3-0 5.81% 17.2
7 1-2 5.62% 17.79
8 2-2 5.4% 18.53
9 0-1 5.37% 18.61
10 0-0 4.93% 20.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
5.37%
18.61
2.93%
34.15
1.06%
93.99
0.29%
344.95
0.06%
1582.28
1
9.46%
10.57
10.32%
9.69
5.62%
17.79
2.04%
48.95
0.56%
179.66
0.12%
824.4
2
9.09%
11.01
9.9%
10.1
5.4%
18.53
1.96%
50.99
0.53%
187.13
0.12%
858.37
3
5.81%
17.2
6.34%
15.78
3.45%
28.95
1.26%
79.68
0.34%
292.4
0.07%
1340.48
4
2.79%
35.83
3.04%
32.87
1.66%
60.31
0.6%
166.0
0.16%
609.01
0.04%
2793.3
5
1.07%
93.3
1.17%
85.6
0.64%
157.06
0.23%
432.34
0.06%
1587.3
0.01%
7299.27
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.48% · Fair: 67.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.34% 14.66%
1.5 57.19% 42.81%
2.5 30.17% 69.83%
3.5 12.87% 87.13%
4.5 4.57% 95.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.96%
Draw 23.51%
Away Win 20.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.65%
No 43.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.88% 6.3 17.33% 5.77 66.78% 1.5
-1.5 33.22% 3.01 — 66.78% 1.5
-1.0 33.22% 3.01 23.49% 4.26 43.29% 2.31
-0.5 56.71% 1.76 — 43.29% 2.31
0 (PK) 56.71% 1.76 22.08% 4.53 21.22% 4.71
+0.5 78.78% 1.27 — 21.22% 4.71
+1.0 78.78% 1.27 13.34% 7.5 7.88% 12.69
+1.5 92.12% 1.09 — 7.88% 12.69
+2.0 92.12% 1.09 5.59% 17.9 2.29% 43.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.