Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.41%
Fair Odds 2.15
Draw
27.22%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
26.37%
Fair Odds 3.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.22% Fair Odds 8.18

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.15 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 3.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.22% 8.18
2 1-0 11.22% 8.92
3 2-1 9.23% 10.83
4 2-0 8.47% 11.81
5 0-1 8.1% 12.35
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.66% 15.01
8 2-2 5.03% 19.88
9 3-1 4.65% 21.53
10 0-2 4.41% 22.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.1%
12.35
4.41%
22.66
1.6%
62.38
0.44%
228.94
0.1%
1050.42
1
11.22%
8.92
12.22%
8.18
6.66%
15.01
2.42%
41.31
0.66%
151.61
0.14%
695.41
2
8.47%
11.81
9.23%
10.83
5.03%
19.88
1.83%
54.72
0.5%
200.8
0.11%
920.81
3
4.26%
23.46
4.65%
21.53
2.53%
39.5
0.92%
108.71
0.25%
398.88
0.05%
1831.5
4
1.61%
62.15
1.75%
57.02
0.96%
104.62
0.35%
287.94
0.09%
1057.08
0.02%
4854.37
5
0.49%
205.8
0.53%
188.82
0.29%
346.5
0.1%
953.29
0.03%
3496.5
0.01%
16129.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.55% · Fair: 181.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.41%
Draw 27.22%
Away Win 26.37%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.71%
No 48.29%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.38% 10.66 14.18% 7.05 76.44% 1.31
-1.5 23.56% 4.24 — 76.44% 1.31
-1.0 23.56% 4.24 23.35% 4.28 53.09% 1.88
-0.5 46.91% 2.13 — 53.09% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.91% 2.13 25.7% 3.89 27.38% 3.65
+0.5 72.62% 1.38 — 27.38% 3.65
+1.0 72.62% 1.38 16.86% 5.93 10.52% 9.5
+1.5 89.48% 1.12 — 10.52% 9.5
+2.0 89.48% 1.12 7.39% 13.53 3.13% 31.91

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.