Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.9%
Fair Odds 2.23
Draw
27.76%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
27.34%
Fair Odds 3.66
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.46% Fair Odds 8.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.23 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 3.66 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.46% 8.02
2 1-0 11.44% 8.74
3 2-1 9.04% 11.07
4 0-1 8.6% 11.63
5 2-0 8.29% 12.06
6 0-0 7.89% 12.68
7 1-2 6.79% 14.72
8 2-2 4.93% 20.3
9 0-2 4.69% 21.34
10 3-1 4.37% 22.89
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.89%
12.68
8.6%
11.63
4.69%
21.34
1.7%
58.75
0.46%
215.56
0.1%
989.12
1
11.44%
8.74
12.46%
8.02
6.79%
14.72
2.47%
40.52
0.67%
148.68
0.15%
682.13
2
8.29%
12.06
9.04%
11.07
4.93%
20.3
1.79%
55.88
0.49%
205.09
0.11%
940.73
3
4.01%
24.96
4.37%
22.89
2.38%
42.01
0.86%
115.62
0.24%
424.27
0.05%
1945.53
4
1.45%
68.84
1.58%
63.16
0.86%
115.89
0.31%
318.98
0.09%
1170.96
0.02%
5376.34
5
0.42%
237.36
0.46%
217.77
0.25%
399.68
0.09%
1100.11
0.02%
4032.26
0.01%
18518.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.47% · Fair: 212.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.89% 12.68
1 20.03% 4.99
2 25.44% 3.93
3 21.54% 4.64
4 13.68% 7.31
5+ 11.42% 8.75
Over 2.5 46.64% Under 2.5 53.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.90%
Draw 27.76%
Away Win 27.34%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.64%
Under 2.5 53.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.81%
No 49.19%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.54% 11.7 13.62% 7.34 77.84% 1.28
-1.5 22.16% 4.51 — 77.84% 1.28
-1.0 22.16% 4.51 23.19% 4.31 54.64% 1.83
-0.5 45.36% 2.2 — 54.64% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.36% 2.2 26.23% 3.81 28.41% 3.52
+0.5 71.59% 1.4 — 28.41% 3.52
+1.0 71.59% 1.4 17.43% 5.74 10.98% 9.11
+1.5 89.02% 1.12 — 10.98% 9.11
+2.0 89.02% 1.12 7.7% 12.99 3.28% 30.49

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.