Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.27%
Fair Odds 2.42
Draw
29.0%
Fair Odds 3.45
Away Win
29.73%
Fair Odds 3.36
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.95% Fair Odds 7.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.42 —
Draw 3.45 —
Away Win 3.36 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.95% 7.72
2 1-0 11.88% 8.41
3 0-1 9.89% 10.11
4 0-0 9.07% 11.02
5 2-1 8.48% 11.79
6 2-0 7.78% 12.85
7 1-2 7.06% 14.16
8 0-2 5.39% 18.56
9 2-2 4.62% 21.63
10 3-1 3.71% 26.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.07%
11.02
9.89%
10.11
5.39%
18.56
1.96%
51.07
0.53%
187.41
0.12%
859.85
1
11.88%
8.41
12.95%
7.72
7.06%
14.16
2.56%
38.99
0.7%
143.06
0.15%
656.17
2
7.78%
12.85
8.48%
11.79
4.62%
21.63
1.68%
59.52
0.46%
218.44
0.1%
1002.0
3
3.4%
29.42
3.71%
26.99
2.02%
49.52
0.73%
136.31
0.2%
500.25
0.04%
2293.58
4
1.11%
89.83
1.21%
82.41
0.66%
151.22
0.24%
416.15
0.07%
1526.72
0.01%
6993.01
5
0.29%
342.82
0.32%
314.56
0.17%
577.03
0.06%
1587.3
0.02%
5813.95
0.0%
27027.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.32% · Fair: 309.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.07% 11.02
1 21.77% 4.59
2 26.13% 3.83
3 20.90% 4.78
4 12.54% 7.97
5+ 9.59% 10.43
Over 2.5 43.03% Under 2.5 56.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.27%
Draw 29.00%
Away Win 29.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.03%
Under 2.5 56.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.47%
No 51.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.74% 14.85 12.22% 8.19 81.05% 1.23
-1.5 18.95% 5.28 — 81.05% 1.23
-1.0 18.95% 5.28 22.65% 4.42 58.4% 1.71
-0.5 41.6% 2.4 — 58.4% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.6% 2.4 27.45% 3.64 30.95% 3.23
+0.5 69.05% 1.45 — 30.95% 3.23
+1.0 69.05% 1.45 18.84% 5.31 12.11% 8.26
+1.5 87.89% 1.14 — 12.11% 8.26
+2.0 87.89% 1.14 8.46% 11.82 3.65% 27.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.