Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.86%
Fair Odds 3.14
Draw
31.42%
Fair Odds 3.18
Away Win
36.72%
Fair Odds 2.72
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.48% Fair Odds 7.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.14 —
Draw 3.18 —
Away Win 2.72 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.48% 7.42
2 0-1 13.21% 7.57
3 1-0 12.37% 8.09
4 0-0 12.12% 8.25
5 1-2 7.35% 13.61
6 0-2 7.2% 13.88
7 2-1 6.87% 14.55
8 2-0 6.31% 15.86
9 2-2 3.75% 26.69
10 1-3 2.67% 37.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.12%
8.25
13.21%
7.57
7.2%
13.88
2.62%
38.21
0.71%
140.23
0.16%
643.5
1
12.37%
8.09
13.48%
7.42
7.35%
13.61
2.67%
37.47
0.73%
137.49
0.16%
630.52
2
6.31%
15.86
6.87%
14.55
3.75%
26.69
1.36%
73.46
0.37%
269.61
0.08%
1236.09
3
2.14%
46.64
2.34%
42.78
1.27%
78.51
0.46%
216.08
0.13%
793.02
0.03%
3636.36
4
0.55%
182.88
0.6%
167.79
0.32%
307.88
0.12%
847.46
0.03%
3105.59
0.01%
14285.71
5
0.11%
896.86
0.12%
822.37
0.07%
1508.3
0.02%
4149.38
0.01%
15151.52
0.0%
71428.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.16% · Fair: 631.71
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 12.12% 8.25
1 25.58% 3.91
2 26.99% 3.71
3 18.98% 5.27
4 10.01% 9.99
5+ 6.31% 15.84
Over 2.5 35.31% Under 2.5 64.69%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.86%
Draw 31.42%
Away Win 36.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 35.31%
Under 2.5 64.69%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.44%
No 57.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.65% 27.39 8.99% 11.12 87.35% 1.14
-1.5 12.65% 7.91 — 87.35% 1.14
-1.0 12.65% 7.91 20.64% 4.85 66.72% 1.5
-0.5 33.28% 3.0 — 66.72% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.28% 3.0 29.85% 3.35 36.87% 2.71
+0.5 63.13% 1.58 — 36.87% 2.71
+1.0 63.13% 1.58 22.06% 4.53 14.81% 6.75
+1.5 85.19% 1.17 — 14.81% 6.75
+2.0 85.19% 1.17 10.27% 9.74 4.54% 22.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.