Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.23%
Fair Odds 3.42
Draw
32.11%
Fair Odds 3.11
Away Win
38.66%
Fair Odds 2.59
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.46% Fair Odds 6.92

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.42 —
Draw 3.11 —
Away Win 2.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.46% 6.92
2 1-1 13.45% 7.44
3 0-0 13.27% 7.54
4 1-0 12.34% 8.11
5 0-2 7.88% 12.69
6 1-2 7.33% 13.64
7 2-1 6.25% 15.99
8 2-0 5.74% 17.43
9 2-2 3.41% 29.34
10 0-3 2.86% 34.93
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.27%
7.54
14.46%
6.92
7.88%
12.69
2.86%
34.93
0.78%
128.17
0.17%
587.89
1
12.34%
8.11
13.45%
7.44
7.33%
13.64
2.66%
37.55
0.73%
137.82
0.16%
632.11
2
5.74%
17.43
6.25%
15.99
3.41%
29.34
1.24%
80.76
0.34%
296.38
0.07%
1358.7
3
1.78%
56.23
1.94%
51.59
1.06%
94.66
0.38%
260.55
0.1%
956.02
0.02%
4385.96
4
0.41%
241.84
0.45%
221.88
0.25%
407.17
0.09%
1121.08
0.02%
4115.23
0.01%
18867.92
5
0.08%
1300.39
0.08%
1193.32
0.05%
2188.18
0.02%
6024.1
0.0%
22222.22
0.0%
100000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.13% · Fair: 750.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.54% 39.46%
1.5 23.85% 76.15%
2.5 6.79% 93.21%
3.5 1.5% 98.5%
4.5 0.27% 99.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.38% 33.62%
1.5 29.73% 70.27%
2.5 9.76% 90.24%
3.5 2.5% 97.5%
4.5 0.52% 99.48%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.27% 7.54
1 26.80% 3.73
2 27.06% 3.69
3 18.22% 5.49
4 9.20% 10.87
5+ 5.45% 18.36
Over 2.5 32.87% Under 2.5 67.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.23%
Draw 32.11%
Away Win 38.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 32.87%
Under 2.5 67.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.19%
No 59.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.89% 34.62 7.94% 12.6 89.17% 1.12
-1.5 10.83% 9.24 — 89.17% 1.12
-1.0 10.83% 9.24 19.74% 5.07 69.43% 1.44
-0.5 30.57% 3.27 — 69.43% 1.44
0 (PK) 30.57% 3.27 30.53% 3.28 38.9% 2.57
+0.5 61.1% 1.64 — 38.9% 2.57
+1.0 61.1% 1.64 23.14% 4.32 15.77% 6.34
+1.5 84.23% 1.19 — 15.77% 6.34
+2.0 84.23% 1.19 10.9% 9.17 4.86% 20.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.