Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.88%
Fair Odds 2.13
Draw
27.16%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
25.96%
Fair Odds 3.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.19% Fair Odds 8.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.13 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 3.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.19% 8.2
2 1-0 11.29% 8.86
3 2-1 9.27% 10.79
4 2-0 8.58% 11.65
5 0-1 8.02% 12.47
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.58% 15.19
8 2-2 5.0% 19.98
9 3-1 4.7% 21.3
10 3-0 4.35% 23.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.02%
12.47
4.33%
23.09
1.56%
64.13
0.42%
237.53
0.09%
1100.11
1
11.29%
8.86
12.19%
8.2
6.58%
15.19
2.37%
42.19
0.64%
156.25
0.14%
723.59
2
8.58%
11.65
9.27%
10.79
5.0%
19.98
1.8%
55.51
0.49%
205.59
0.11%
951.47
3
4.35%
23.0
4.7%
21.3
2.54%
39.44
0.91%
109.57
0.25%
405.84
0.05%
1879.7
4
1.65%
60.53
1.78%
56.05
0.96%
103.8
0.35%
288.35
0.09%
1068.38
0.02%
4950.5
5
0.5%
199.12
0.54%
184.37
0.29%
341.41
0.11%
948.77
0.03%
3508.77
0.01%
16393.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 177.84
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.88%
Draw 27.16%
Away Win 25.96%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.6%
No 48.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.59% 10.43 14.35% 6.97 76.06% 1.31
-1.5 23.94% 4.18 — 76.06% 1.31
-1.0 23.94% 4.18 23.47% 4.26 52.59% 1.9
-0.5 47.41% 2.11 — 52.59% 1.9
0 (PK) 47.41% 2.11 25.64% 3.9 26.96% 3.71
+0.5 73.04% 1.37 — 26.96% 3.71
+1.0 73.04% 1.37 16.67% 6.0 10.28% 9.72
+1.5 89.72% 1.11 — 10.28% 9.72
+2.0 89.72% 1.11 7.25% 13.8 3.04% 32.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.