Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.31%
Fair Odds 2.75
Draw
30.7%
Fair Odds 3.26
Away Win
32.99%
Fair Odds 3.03
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.4% Fair Odds 7.46

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.75 —
Draw 3.26 —
Away Win 3.03 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.4% 7.46
2 1-0 12.41% 8.06
3 0-1 11.97% 8.36
4 0-0 11.08% 9.03
5 2-1 7.51% 13.32
6 1-2 7.24% 13.82
7 2-0 6.95% 14.39
8 0-2 6.46% 15.48
9 2-2 4.05% 24.67
10 3-1 2.8% 35.69
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.08%
9.03
11.97%
8.36
6.46%
15.48
2.33%
42.99
0.63%
159.21
0.14%
736.92
1
12.41%
8.06
13.4%
7.46
7.24%
13.82
2.61%
38.38
0.7%
142.15
0.15%
657.89
2
6.95%
14.39
7.51%
13.32
4.05%
24.67
1.46%
68.54
0.39%
253.81
0.09%
1175.09
3
2.59%
38.54
2.8%
35.69
1.51%
66.09
0.54%
183.59
0.15%
679.81
0.03%
3144.65
4
0.73%
137.65
0.78%
127.45
0.42%
236.02
0.15%
655.74
0.04%
2427.18
0.01%
11235.96
5
0.16%
614.63
0.18%
569.15
0.09%
1053.74
0.03%
2923.98
0.01%
10869.57
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.19% · Fair: 515.73
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.08% 9.03
1 24.38% 4.10
2 26.81% 3.73
3 19.66% 5.09
4 10.82% 9.25
5+ 7.25% 13.79
Over 2.5 37.73% Under 2.5 62.27%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.31%
Draw 30.70%
Away Win 32.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.73%
Under 2.5 62.27%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.49%
No 55.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.64% 21.54 10.21% 9.79 85.15% 1.17
-1.5 14.85% 6.73 — 85.15% 1.17
-1.0 14.85% 6.73 21.59% 4.63 63.56% 1.57
-0.5 36.44% 2.74 — 63.56% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.44% 2.74 29.12% 3.43 34.43% 2.9
+0.5 65.57% 1.53 — 34.43% 2.9
+1.0 65.57% 1.53 20.82% 4.8 13.61% 7.35
+1.5 86.39% 1.16 — 13.61% 7.35
+2.0 86.39% 1.16 9.49% 10.53 4.12% 24.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.