Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.21%
Fair Odds 3.01
Draw
31.19%
Fair Odds 3.21
Away Win
35.6%
Fair Odds 2.81
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.47% Fair Odds 7.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.01 —
Draw 3.21 —
Away Win 2.81 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.47% 7.42
2 0-1 12.71% 7.87
3 1-0 12.47% 8.02
4 0-0 11.77% 8.5
5 1-2 7.27% 13.75
6 2-1 7.14% 14.01
7 0-2 6.86% 14.57
8 2-0 6.61% 15.13
9 2-2 3.85% 25.94
10 1-3 2.62% 38.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.77%
8.5
12.71%
7.87
6.86%
14.57
2.47%
40.48
0.67%
149.93
0.14%
693.96
1
12.47%
8.02
13.47%
7.42
7.27%
13.75
2.62%
38.19
0.71%
141.44
0.15%
654.88
2
6.61%
15.13
7.14%
14.01
3.85%
25.94
1.39%
72.06
0.37%
266.88
0.08%
1236.09
3
2.34%
42.82
2.52%
39.65
1.36%
73.42
0.49%
203.96
0.13%
755.29
0.03%
3496.5
4
0.62%
161.58
0.67%
149.61
0.36%
277.09
0.13%
769.82
0.04%
2849.0
0.01%
13157.89
5
0.13%
762.2
0.14%
705.72
0.08%
1307.19
0.03%
3636.36
0.01%
13513.51
0.0%
62500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.17% · Fair: 593.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.77% 8.50
1 25.18% 3.97
2 26.94% 3.71
3 19.22% 5.20
4 10.28% 9.73
5+ 6.62% 15.11
Over 2.5 36.12% Under 2.5 63.88%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.21%
Draw 31.19%
Away Win 35.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.12%
Under 2.5 63.88%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.16%
No 56.84%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.05% 24.69 9.52% 10.5 86.43% 1.16
-1.5 13.57% 7.37 — 86.43% 1.16
-1.0 13.57% 7.37 21.11% 4.74 65.32% 1.53
-0.5 34.68% 2.88 — 65.32% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.68% 2.88 29.62% 3.38 35.7% 2.8
+0.5 64.3% 1.56 — 35.7% 2.8
+1.0 64.3% 1.56 21.51% 4.65 14.19% 7.05
+1.5 85.81% 1.17 — 14.19% 7.05
+2.0 85.81% 1.17 9.88% 10.12 4.31% 23.21

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.