Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.76%
Fair Odds 1.79
Draw
23.75%
Fair Odds 4.21
Away Win
20.49%
Fair Odds 4.88
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.48% Fair Odds 9.54

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.79 —
Draw 4.21 —
Away Win 4.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.48% 9.54
2 2-1 9.9% 10.1
3 1-0 9.79% 10.21
4 2-0 9.26% 10.8
5 3-1 6.24% 16.03
6 3-0 5.83% 17.15
7 1-2 5.61% 17.84
8 0-1 5.54% 18.04
9 2-2 5.3% 18.87
10 0-0 5.18% 19.3
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.18%
19.3
5.54%
18.04
2.97%
33.71
1.06%
94.52
0.28%
353.36
0.06%
1650.17
1
9.79%
10.21
10.48%
9.54
5.61%
17.84
2.0%
50.01
0.53%
186.95
0.11%
873.36
2
9.26%
10.8
9.9%
10.1
5.3%
18.87
1.89%
52.92
0.51%
197.82
0.11%
924.21
3
5.83%
17.15
6.24%
16.03
3.34%
29.96
1.19%
84.0
0.32%
313.97
0.07%
1468.43
4
2.76%
36.3
2.95%
33.92
1.58%
63.41
0.56%
177.78
0.15%
664.45
0.03%
3105.59
5
1.04%
96.02
1.11%
89.74
0.6%
167.73
0.21%
470.37
0.06%
1757.47
0.01%
8196.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.37% · Fair: 72.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.89% 15.11%
1.5 56.34% 43.66%
2.5 29.36% 70.64%
3.5 12.36% 87.64%
4.5 4.33% 95.67%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.18% 19.30
1 15.34% 6.52
2 22.70% 4.41
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.57% 6.03
5+ 17.81% 5.62
Over 2.5 56.78% Under 2.5 43.22%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.76%
Draw 23.75%
Away Win 20.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.78%
Under 2.5 43.22%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.77%
No 44.23%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.55% 6.43 17.3% 5.78 67.14% 1.49
-1.5 32.86% 3.04 — 67.14% 1.49
-1.0 32.86% 3.04 23.66% 4.23 43.49% 2.3
-0.5 56.51% 1.77 — 43.49% 2.3
0 (PK) 56.51% 1.77 22.31% 4.48 21.17% 4.72
+0.5 78.83% 1.27 — 21.17% 4.72
+1.0 78.83% 1.27 13.39% 7.47 7.78% 12.85
+1.5 92.22% 1.08 — 7.78% 12.85
+2.0 92.22% 1.08 5.55% 18.03 2.23% 44.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.