Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.08%
Fair Odds 2.04
Draw
26.44%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
24.49%
Fair Odds 4.08
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.86% Fair Odds 8.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.04 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 4.08 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.86% 8.43
2 1-0 11.08% 9.02
3 2-1 9.48% 10.54
4 2-0 8.86% 11.28
5 0-1 7.41% 13.5
6 0-0 6.93% 14.44
7 1-2 6.34% 15.77
8 2-2 5.07% 19.71
9 3-1 5.06% 19.77
10 3-0 4.73% 21.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.93%
14.44
7.41%
13.5
3.96%
25.23
1.41%
70.72
0.38%
264.41
0.08%
1236.09
1
11.08%
9.02
11.86%
8.43
6.34%
15.77
2.26%
44.2
0.61%
165.23
0.13%
772.2
2
8.86%
11.28
9.48%
10.54
5.07%
19.71
1.81%
55.25
0.48%
206.57
0.1%
965.25
3
4.73%
21.15
5.06%
19.77
2.71%
36.95
0.97%
103.59
0.26%
387.3
0.06%
1808.32
4
1.89%
52.88
2.02%
49.42
1.08%
92.38
0.39%
259.0
0.1%
968.05
0.02%
4524.89
5
0.61%
165.26
0.65%
154.44
0.35%
288.68
0.12%
809.06
0.03%
3021.15
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 145.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.93% 14.44
1 18.49% 5.41
2 24.68% 4.05
3 21.97% 4.55
4 14.66% 6.82
5+ 13.27% 7.54
Over 2.5 49.9% Under 2.5 50.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.08%
Draw 26.44%
Away Win 24.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.43%
No 47.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.83% 9.23 15.14% 6.61 74.03% 1.35
-1.5 25.97% 3.85 — 74.03% 1.35
-1.0 25.97% 3.85 23.69% 4.22 50.34% 1.99
-0.5 49.66% 2.01 — 50.34% 1.99
0 (PK) 49.66% 2.01 24.93% 4.01 25.4% 3.94
+0.5 74.6% 1.34 — 25.4% 3.94
+1.0 74.6% 1.34 15.84% 6.31 9.56% 10.46
+1.5 90.44% 1.11 — 9.56% 10.46
+2.0 90.44% 1.11 6.77% 14.77 2.79% 35.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.