Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.83%
Fair Odds 2.05
Draw
26.53%
Fair Odds 3.77
Away Win
24.64%
Fair Odds 4.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.9% Fair Odds 8.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.05 —
Draw 3.77 —
Away Win 4.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.9% 8.4
2 1-0 11.12% 8.99
3 2-1 9.46% 10.57
4 2-0 8.84% 11.31
5 0-1 7.48% 13.36
6 0-0 6.99% 14.3
7 1-2 6.37% 15.71
8 2-2 5.06% 19.76
9 3-1 5.01% 19.94
10 3-0 4.69% 21.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.99%
14.3
7.48%
13.36
4.0%
24.97
1.43%
70.02
0.38%
261.78
0.08%
1222.49
1
11.12%
8.99
11.9%
8.4
6.37%
15.71
2.27%
44.04
0.61%
164.64
0.13%
769.23
2
8.84%
11.31
9.46%
10.57
5.06%
19.76
1.81%
55.39
0.48%
207.08
0.1%
968.05
3
4.69%
21.34
5.01%
19.94
2.68%
37.28
0.96%
104.52
0.26%
390.78
0.05%
1824.82
4
1.86%
53.69
1.99%
50.17
1.07%
93.78
0.38%
262.95
0.1%
983.28
0.02%
4587.16
5
0.59%
168.8
0.63%
157.78
0.34%
294.9
0.12%
827.13
0.03%
3086.42
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.67% · Fair: 149.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.99% 14.30
1 18.61% 5.37
2 24.75% 4.04
3 21.94% 4.56
4 14.59% 6.85
5+ 13.12% 7.62
Over 2.5 49.65% Under 2.5 50.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.83%
Draw 26.53%
Away Win 24.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.65%
Under 2.5 50.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.3%
No 47.7%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.68% 9.36 15.05% 6.64 74.27% 1.35
-1.5 25.73% 3.89 — 74.27% 1.35
-1.0 25.73% 3.89 23.68% 4.22 50.59% 1.98
-0.5 49.41% 2.02 — 50.59% 1.98
0 (PK) 49.41% 2.02 25.02% 4.0 25.56% 3.91
+0.5 74.44% 1.34 — 25.56% 3.91
+1.0 74.44% 1.34 15.94% 6.28 9.63% 10.39
+1.5 90.37% 1.11 — 9.63% 10.39
+2.0 90.37% 1.11 6.82% 14.67 2.81% 35.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.