Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.36%
Fair Odds 2.11
Draw
27.09%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
25.56%
Fair Odds 3.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.16% Fair Odds 8.22

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.11 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 3.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.16% 8.22
2 1-0 11.36% 8.8
3 2-1 9.3% 10.75
4 2-0 8.69% 11.5
5 0-1 7.95% 12.58
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.51% 15.37
8 2-2 4.98% 20.09
9 3-1 4.74% 21.08
10 3-0 4.43% 22.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.95%
12.58
4.25%
23.52
1.52%
65.94
0.41%
246.49
0.09%
1152.07
1
11.36%
8.8
12.16%
8.22
6.51%
15.37
2.32%
43.1
0.62%
161.11
0.13%
753.01
2
8.69%
11.5
9.3%
10.75
4.98%
20.09
1.77%
56.34
0.47%
210.61
0.1%
984.25
3
4.43%
22.56
4.74%
21.08
2.54%
39.4
0.91%
110.47
0.24%
413.05
0.05%
1930.5
4
1.7%
58.97
1.81%
55.11
0.97%
103.01
0.35%
288.85
0.09%
1079.91
0.02%
5050.51
5
0.52%
192.72
0.56%
180.08
0.3%
336.59
0.11%
943.4
0.03%
3533.57
0.01%
16393.44
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 174.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.36%
Draw 27.09%
Away Win 25.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.47%
No 48.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.8% 10.21 14.52% 6.89 75.68% 1.32
-1.5 24.32% 4.11 — 75.68% 1.32
-1.0 24.32% 4.11 23.58% 4.24 52.1% 1.92
-0.5 47.9% 2.09 — 52.1% 1.92
0 (PK) 47.9% 2.09 25.57% 3.91 26.54% 3.77
+0.5 73.46% 1.36 — 26.54% 3.77
+1.0 73.46% 1.36 16.49% 6.06 10.05% 9.95
+1.5 89.95% 1.11 — 10.05% 9.95
+2.0 89.95% 1.11 7.1% 14.08 2.94% 33.98

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.