Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.32%
Fair Odds 2.26
Draw
28.19%
Fair Odds 3.55
Away Win
27.48%
Fair Odds 3.64
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.63% Fair Odds 7.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.26 —
Draw 3.55 —
Away Win 3.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.63% 7.91
2 1-0 11.81% 8.47
3 0-1 8.96% 11.16
4 2-1 8.91% 11.23
5 0-0 8.37% 11.94
6 2-0 8.32% 12.01
7 1-2 6.76% 14.79
8 0-2 4.79% 20.86
9 2-2 4.77% 20.98
10 3-1 4.19% 23.89
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.37%
11.94
8.96%
11.16
4.79%
20.86
1.71%
58.49
0.46%
218.63
0.1%
1021.45
1
11.81%
8.47
12.63%
7.91
6.76%
14.79
2.41%
41.48
0.64%
155.06
0.14%
724.64
2
8.32%
12.01
8.91%
11.23
4.77%
20.98
1.7%
58.84
0.45%
219.93
0.1%
1027.75
3
3.91%
25.56
4.19%
23.89
2.24%
44.65
0.8%
125.19
0.21%
467.95
0.05%
2188.18
4
1.38%
72.51
1.48%
67.76
0.79%
126.66
0.28%
355.11
0.08%
1328.02
0.02%
6211.18
5
0.39%
257.14
0.42%
240.33
0.22%
449.24
0.08%
1259.45
0.02%
4716.98
0.0%
22222.22
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.42% · Fair: 240.73
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.37% 11.94
1 20.77% 4.82
2 25.75% 3.88
3 21.29% 4.70
4 13.20% 7.58
5+ 10.62% 9.42
Over 2.5 45.1% Under 2.5 54.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.32%
Draw 28.19%
Away Win 27.48%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.66%
No 50.34%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.12% 12.32 13.39% 7.47 78.5% 1.27
-1.5 21.5% 4.65 — 78.5% 1.27
-1.0 21.5% 4.65 23.26% 4.3 55.24% 1.81
-0.5 44.76% 2.23 — 55.24% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.76% 2.23 26.65% 3.75 28.58% 3.5
+0.5 71.42% 1.4 — 28.58% 3.5
+1.0 71.42% 1.4 17.65% 5.67 10.93% 9.15
+1.5 89.07% 1.12 — 10.93% 9.15
+2.0 89.07% 1.12 7.71% 12.97 3.23% 31.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.