Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.24%
Fair Odds 2.37
Draw
28.92%
Fair Odds 3.46
Away Win
28.84%
Fair Odds 3.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.91% Fair Odds 7.75

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.37 —
Draw 3.46 —
Away Win 3.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.91% 7.75
2 1-0 12.07% 8.29
3 0-1 9.71% 10.3
4 0-0 9.07% 11.02
5 2-1 8.59% 11.65
6 2-0 8.02% 12.46
7 1-2 6.91% 14.48
8 0-2 5.19% 19.26
9 2-2 4.59% 21.77
10 3-1 3.81% 26.27
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.07%
11.02
9.71%
10.3
5.19%
19.26
1.85%
53.99
0.5%
201.82
0.11%
943.4
1
12.07%
8.29
12.91%
7.75
6.91%
14.48
2.46%
40.59
0.66%
151.75
0.14%
709.22
2
8.02%
12.46
8.59%
11.65
4.59%
21.77
1.64%
61.04
0.44%
228.21
0.09%
1066.1
3
3.56%
28.11
3.81%
26.27
2.04%
49.11
0.73%
137.68
0.19%
514.67
0.04%
2403.85
4
1.18%
84.55
1.27%
79.02
0.68%
147.69
0.24%
414.08
0.06%
1547.99
0.01%
7246.38
5
0.31%
317.86
0.34%
297.09
0.18%
555.25
0.06%
1557.63
0.02%
5813.95
0.0%
27027.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 300.21
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.07% 11.02
1 21.77% 4.59
2 26.13% 3.83
3 20.90% 4.78
4 12.54% 7.97
5+ 9.59% 10.43
Over 2.5 43.03% Under 2.5 56.97%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.24%
Draw 28.92%
Away Win 28.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.03%
Under 2.5 56.97%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.32%
No 51.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.08% 14.12 12.57% 7.95 80.34% 1.24
-1.5 19.66% 5.09 — 80.34% 1.24
-1.0 19.66% 5.09 22.95% 4.36 57.4% 1.74
-0.5 42.6% 2.35 — 57.4% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.6% 2.35 27.37% 3.65 30.03% 3.33
+0.5 69.97% 1.43 — 30.03% 3.33
+1.0 69.97% 1.43 18.46% 5.42 11.57% 8.65
+1.5 88.43% 1.13 — 11.57% 8.65
+2.0 88.43% 1.13 8.14% 12.29 3.43% 29.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.