Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.1%
Fair Odds 2.49
Draw
29.64%
Fair Odds 3.37
Away Win
30.26%
Fair Odds 3.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.14% Fair Odds 7.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.49 —
Draw 3.37 —
Away Win 3.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.14% 7.61
2 1-0 12.28% 8.14
3 0-1 10.52% 9.51
4 0-0 9.83% 10.18
5 2-1 8.22% 12.17
6 2-0 7.68% 13.02
7 1-2 7.03% 14.22
8 0-2 5.63% 17.78
9 2-2 4.4% 22.75
10 3-1 3.42% 29.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.83%
10.18
10.52%
9.51
5.63%
17.78
2.01%
49.84
0.54%
186.32
0.11%
870.32
1
12.28%
8.14
13.14%
7.61
7.03%
14.22
2.51%
39.87
0.67%
149.05
0.14%
696.38
2
7.68%
13.02
8.22%
12.17
4.4%
22.75
1.57%
63.79
0.42%
238.49
0.09%
1114.83
3
3.2%
31.26
3.42%
29.21
1.83%
54.61
0.65%
153.09
0.17%
572.41
0.04%
2673.8
4
1.0%
100.03
1.07%
93.48
0.57%
174.73
0.2%
489.96
0.05%
1831.5
0.01%
8547.01
5
0.25%
400.16
0.27%
373.97
0.14%
698.81
0.05%
1960.78
0.01%
7352.94
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.27% · Fair: 373.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.83% 10.18
1 22.80% 4.39
2 26.45% 3.78
3 20.45% 4.89
4 11.86% 8.43
5+ 8.61% 11.61
Over 2.5 40.93% Under 2.5 59.07%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.10%
Draw 29.64%
Away Win 30.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.93%
Under 2.5 59.07%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.88%
No 53.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.11% 16.37 11.73% 8.53 82.16% 1.22
-1.5 17.84% 5.61 — 82.16% 1.22
-1.0 17.84% 5.61 22.55% 4.43 59.62% 1.68
-0.5 40.38% 2.48 — 59.62% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.38% 2.48 28.08% 3.56 31.54% 3.17
+0.5 68.46% 1.46 — 31.54% 3.17
+1.0 68.46% 1.46 19.3% 5.18 12.24% 8.17
+1.5 87.76% 1.14 — 12.24% 8.17
+2.0 87.76% 1.14 8.59% 11.64 3.64% 27.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.