Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.91%
Fair Odds 2.64
Draw
30.34%
Fair Odds 3.3
Away Win
31.75%
Fair Odds 3.15
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.33% Fair Odds 7.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.64 —
Draw 3.3 —
Away Win 3.15 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.33% 7.5
2 1-0 12.46% 8.03
3 0-1 11.39% 8.78
4 0-0 10.65% 9.39
5 2-1 7.8% 12.83
6 2-0 7.29% 13.72
7 1-2 7.13% 14.02
8 0-2 6.09% 16.41
9 2-2 4.17% 23.97
10 3-1 3.04% 32.89
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
11.39%
8.78
6.09%
16.41
2.17%
46.01
0.58%
172.0
0.12%
803.86
1
12.46%
8.03
13.33%
7.5
7.13%
14.02
2.54%
39.32
0.68%
146.99
0.15%
686.81
2
7.29%
13.72
7.8%
12.83
4.17%
23.97
1.49%
67.22
0.4%
251.26
0.09%
1173.71
3
2.84%
35.19
3.04%
32.89
1.63%
61.47
0.58%
172.35
0.16%
644.33
0.03%
3012.05
4
0.83%
120.31
0.89%
112.44
0.48%
210.17
0.17%
589.28
0.05%
2202.64
0.01%
10309.28
5
0.19%
514.14
0.21%
480.54
0.11%
898.47
0.04%
2518.89
0.01%
9433.96
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 462.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.96% 31.04%
1.5 32.65% 67.35%
2.5 11.41% 88.59%
3.5 3.12% 96.88%
4.5 0.7% 99.3%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.01
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.91%
Draw 30.34%
Away Win 31.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.31%
No 54.69%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.21% 19.21 10.84% 9.22 83.95% 1.19
-1.5 16.05% 6.23 — 83.95% 1.19
-1.0 16.05% 6.23 22.06% 4.53 61.89% 1.62
-0.5 38.11% 2.62 — 61.89% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.11% 2.62 28.77% 3.48 33.12% 3.02
+0.5 66.88% 1.5 — 33.12% 3.02
+1.0 66.88% 1.5 20.17% 4.96 12.94% 7.73
+1.5 87.06% 1.15 — 12.94% 7.73
+2.0 87.06% 1.15 9.07% 11.02 3.87% 25.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.