Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
64.47%
Fair Odds 1.55
Draw
19.96%
Fair Odds 5.01
Away Win
15.57%
Fair Odds 6.42
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.73% Fair Odds 10.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.55 —
Draw 5.01 —
Away Win 6.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.73% 10.28
2 2-0 9.18% 10.9
3 1-1 8.42% 11.88
4 1-0 7.94% 12.59
5 3-1 7.49% 13.35
6 3-0 7.07% 14.15
7 2-2 5.15% 19.4
8 1-2 4.46% 22.41
9 4-1 4.32% 23.12
10 4-0 4.08% 24.51
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.44%
29.08
3.65%
27.43
1.93%
51.76
0.68%
146.48
0.18%
552.79
0.04%
2604.17
1
7.94%
12.59
8.42%
11.88
4.46%
22.41
1.58%
63.41
0.42%
239.29
0.09%
1128.67
2
9.18%
10.9
9.73%
10.28
5.15%
19.4
1.82%
54.9
0.48%
207.17
0.1%
977.52
3
7.07%
14.15
7.49%
13.35
3.97%
25.19
1.4%
71.3
0.37%
269.03
0.08%
1269.04
4
4.08%
24.51
4.32%
23.12
2.29%
43.63
0.81%
123.47
0.21%
465.98
0.05%
2197.8
5
1.88%
53.05
2.0%
50.05
1.06%
94.43
0.37%
267.24
0.1%
1008.06
0.02%
4761.9
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.13% · Fair: 31.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 90.07% 9.93%
1.5 67.14% 32.86%
2.5 40.66% 59.34%
3.5 20.27% 79.73%
4.5 8.49% 91.51%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.44% 29.08
1 11.59% 8.63
2 19.53% 5.12
3 21.94% 4.56
4 18.48% 5.41
5+ 25.02% 4.00
Over 2.5 65.44% Under 2.5 34.56%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 64.47%
Draw 19.96%
Away Win 15.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.44%
Under 2.5 34.56%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.87%
No 41.13%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 23.41% 4.27 19.37% 5.16 57.22% 1.75
-1.5 42.78% 2.34 — 57.22% 1.75
-1.0 42.78% 2.34 22.56% 4.43 34.66% 2.89
-0.5 65.34% 1.53 — 34.66% 2.89
0 (PK) 65.34% 1.53 18.65% 5.36 16.01% 6.25
+0.5 83.99% 1.19 — 16.01% 6.25
+1.0 83.99% 1.19 10.35% 9.66 5.66% 17.68
+1.5 94.34% 1.06 — 5.66% 17.68
+2.0 94.34% 1.06 4.08% 24.52 1.58% 63.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.