Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.33%
Fair Odds 2.07
Draw
26.82%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
24.85%
Fair Odds 4.02
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.04% Fair Odds 8.31

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.07 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 4.02 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.04% 8.31
2 1-0 11.36% 8.8
3 2-1 9.39% 10.65
4 2-0 8.86% 11.29
5 0-1 7.72% 12.96
6 0-0 7.28% 13.74
7 1-2 6.38% 15.67
8 2-2 4.98% 20.09
9 3-1 4.88% 20.48
10 3-0 4.61% 21.71
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.28%
13.74
7.72%
12.96
4.09%
24.45
1.45%
69.19
0.38%
261.1
0.08%
1231.53
1
11.36%
8.8
12.04%
8.31
6.38%
15.67
2.25%
44.36
0.6%
167.39
0.13%
789.27
2
8.86%
11.29
9.39%
10.65
4.98%
20.09
1.76%
56.87
0.47%
214.59
0.1%
1012.15
3
4.61%
21.71
4.88%
20.48
2.59%
38.64
0.91%
109.36
0.24%
412.71
0.05%
1945.53
4
1.8%
55.66
1.9%
52.51
1.01%
99.08
0.36%
280.43
0.09%
1058.2
0.02%
5000.0
5
0.56%
178.41
0.59%
168.29
0.31%
317.56
0.11%
898.47
0.03%
3389.83
0.01%
15873.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 162.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.28% 13.74
1 19.07% 5.24
2 24.99% 4.00
3 21.82% 4.58
4 14.29% 7.00
5+ 12.54% 7.97
Over 2.5 48.66% Under 2.5 51.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.33%
Draw 26.82%
Away Win 24.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.66%
Under 2.5 51.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.62%
No 48.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.3% 9.71 14.87% 6.72 74.83% 1.34
-1.5 25.17% 3.97 — 74.83% 1.34
-1.0 25.17% 3.97 23.72% 4.22 51.1% 1.96
-0.5 48.9% 2.05 — 51.1% 1.96
0 (PK) 48.9% 2.05 25.31% 3.95 25.79% 3.88
+0.5 74.21% 1.35 — 25.79% 3.88
+1.0 74.21% 1.35 16.12% 6.2 9.67% 10.34
+1.5 90.33% 1.11 — 9.67% 10.34
+2.0 90.33% 1.11 6.87% 14.57 2.81% 35.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.