Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.83%
Fair Odds 2.09
Draw
27.01%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
25.15%
Fair Odds 3.98
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.12% Fair Odds 8.25

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.09 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 3.98 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.12% 8.25
2 1-0 11.44% 8.74
3 2-1 9.34% 10.71
4 2-0 8.81% 11.35
5 0-1 7.87% 12.7
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.43% 15.56
8 2-2 4.95% 20.21
9 3-1 4.79% 20.87
10 3-0 4.52% 22.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.87%
12.7
4.17%
23.97
1.47%
67.82
0.39%
255.95
0.08%
1207.73
1
11.44%
8.74
12.12%
8.25
6.43%
15.56
2.27%
44.04
0.6%
166.2
0.13%
783.7
2
8.81%
11.35
9.34%
10.71
4.95%
20.21
1.75%
57.2
0.46%
215.84
0.1%
1018.33
3
4.52%
22.12
4.79%
20.87
2.54%
39.37
0.9%
111.42
0.24%
420.52
0.05%
1984.13
4
1.74%
57.45
1.85%
54.2
0.98%
102.26
0.35%
289.44
0.09%
1091.7
0.02%
5154.64
5
0.54%
186.53
0.57%
175.96
0.3%
332.01
0.11%
939.85
0.03%
3546.1
0.01%
16666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.58% · Fair: 171.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.83%
Draw 27.01%
Away Win 25.15%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.34%
No 48.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.01% 9.99 14.69% 6.81 75.3% 1.33
-1.5 24.7% 4.05 — 75.3% 1.33
-1.0 24.7% 4.05 23.69% 4.22 51.61% 1.94
-0.5 48.39% 2.07 — 51.61% 1.94
0 (PK) 48.39% 2.07 25.5% 3.92 26.12% 3.83
+0.5 73.88% 1.35 — 26.12% 3.83
+1.0 73.88% 1.35 16.31% 6.13 9.81% 10.19
+1.5 90.19% 1.11 — 9.81% 10.19
+2.0 90.19% 1.11 6.96% 14.37 2.85% 35.08

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.