Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.57%
Fair Odds 2.19
Draw
27.85%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
26.57%
Fair Odds 3.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.49% Fair Odds 8.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.19 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 3.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.49% 8.01
2 1-0 11.78% 8.49
3 2-1 9.06% 11.04
4 0-1 8.61% 11.61
5 2-0 8.54% 11.71
6 0-0 8.13% 12.3
7 1-2 6.62% 15.11
8 2-2 4.8% 20.84
9 0-2 4.57% 21.9
10 3-1 4.38% 22.85
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.13%
12.3
8.61%
11.61
4.57%
21.9
1.61%
61.99
0.43%
233.92
0.09%
1103.75
1
11.78%
8.49
12.49%
8.01
6.62%
15.11
2.34%
42.75
0.62%
161.32
0.13%
761.04
2
8.54%
11.71
9.06%
11.04
4.8%
20.84
1.7%
58.97
0.45%
222.52
0.1%
1049.32
3
4.13%
24.22
4.38%
22.85
2.32%
43.11
0.82%
122.0
0.22%
460.41
0.05%
2173.91
4
1.5%
66.8
1.59%
63.02
0.84%
118.92
0.3%
336.59
0.08%
1270.65
0.02%
5988.02
5
0.43%
230.36
0.46%
217.34
0.24%
410.0
0.09%
1160.09
0.02%
4385.96
0.0%
20833.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 217.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.13% 12.30
1 20.40% 4.90
2 25.60% 3.91
3 21.42% 4.67
4 13.44% 7.44
5+ 11.02% 9.08
Over 2.5 45.87% Under 2.5 54.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.57%
Draw 27.85%
Away Win 26.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.87%
Under 2.5 54.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.02%
No 49.98%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.72% 11.46 13.85% 7.22 77.42% 1.29
-1.5 22.58% 4.43 — 77.42% 1.29
-1.0 22.58% 4.43 23.48% 4.26 53.94% 1.85
-0.5 46.06% 2.17 — 53.94% 1.85
0 (PK) 46.06% 2.17 26.32% 3.8 27.62% 3.62
+0.5 72.38% 1.38 — 27.62% 3.62
+1.0 72.38% 1.38 17.17% 5.83 10.46% 9.56
+1.5 89.54% 1.12 — 10.46% 9.56
+2.0 89.54% 1.12 7.4% 13.51 3.05% 32.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.