Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.29%
Fair Odds 2.68
Draw
30.67%
Fair Odds 3.26
Away Win
32.04%
Fair Odds 3.12
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.39% Fair Odds 7.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.68 —
Draw 3.26 —
Away Win 3.12 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.39% 7.47
2 1-0 12.63% 7.92
3 0-1 11.75% 8.51
4 0-0 11.08% 9.03
5 2-1 7.63% 13.1
6 2-0 7.2% 13.89
7 1-2 7.1% 14.09
8 0-2 6.22% 16.06
9 2-2 4.04% 24.72
10 3-1 2.9% 34.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.08%
9.03
11.75%
8.51
6.22%
16.06
2.2%
45.46
0.58%
171.56
0.12%
809.06
1
12.63%
7.92
13.39%
7.47
7.1%
14.09
2.51%
39.88
0.66%
150.49
0.14%
709.72
2
7.2%
13.89
7.63%
13.1
4.04%
24.72
1.43%
69.97
0.38%
264.06
0.08%
1245.33
3
2.74%
36.55
2.9%
34.48
1.54%
65.06
0.54%
184.13
0.14%
694.93
0.03%
3278.69
4
0.78%
128.24
0.83%
120.99
0.44%
228.26
0.15%
645.99
0.04%
2439.02
0.01%
11494.25
5
0.18%
562.43
0.19%
530.5
0.1%
1001.0
0.04%
2832.86
0.01%
10638.3
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.2% · Fair: 511.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.08% 9.03
1 24.38% 4.10
2 26.81% 3.73
3 19.66% 5.09
4 10.82% 9.25
5+ 7.25% 13.79
Over 2.5 37.73% Under 2.5 62.27%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.29%
Draw 30.67%
Away Win 32.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.73%
Under 2.5 62.27%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.45%
No 55.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.92% 20.32 10.58% 9.46 84.5% 1.18
-1.5 15.5% 6.45 — 84.5% 1.18
-1.0 15.5% 6.45 21.97% 4.55 62.54% 1.6
-0.5 37.46% 2.67 — 62.54% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.46% 2.67 29.1% 3.44 33.44% 2.99
+0.5 66.56% 1.5 — 33.44% 2.99
+1.0 66.56% 1.5 20.42% 4.9 13.01% 7.68
+1.5 86.99% 1.15 — 13.01% 7.68
+2.0 86.99% 1.15 9.14% 10.94 3.87% 25.84

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.