Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.45%
Fair Odds 2.74
Draw
30.93%
Fair Odds 3.23
Away Win
32.62%
Fair Odds 3.07
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.43% Fair Odds 7.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.74 —
Draw 3.23 —
Away Win 3.07 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.43% 7.44
2 1-0 12.67% 7.89
3 0-1 12.1% 8.26
4 0-0 11.42% 8.76
5 2-1 7.46% 13.41
6 1-2 7.12% 14.04
7 2-0 7.03% 14.22
8 0-2 6.41% 15.59
9 2-2 3.95% 25.31
10 3-1 2.76% 36.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.42%
8.76
12.1%
8.26
6.41%
15.59
2.27%
44.12
0.6%
166.5
0.13%
785.55
1
12.67%
7.89
13.43%
7.44
7.12%
14.04
2.52%
39.75
0.67%
149.99
0.14%
707.71
2
7.03%
14.22
7.46%
13.41
3.95%
25.31
1.4%
71.62
0.37%
270.27
0.08%
1275.51
3
2.6%
38.42
2.76%
36.25
1.46%
68.39
0.52%
193.57
0.14%
730.46
0.03%
3448.28
4
0.72%
138.47
0.77%
130.63
0.41%
246.49
0.14%
697.35
0.04%
2631.58
0.01%
12345.68
5
0.16%
623.83
0.17%
588.58
0.09%
1109.88
0.03%
3144.65
0.01%
11904.76
0.0%
55555.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.18% · Fair: 550.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.35% 34.65%
1.5 28.63% 71.37%
2.5 9.17% 90.83%
3.5 2.29% 97.71%
4.5 0.47% 99.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.42% 8.76
1 24.78% 4.04
2 26.88% 3.72
3 19.44% 5.14
4 10.55% 9.48
5+ 6.93% 14.43
Over 2.5 36.92% Under 2.5 63.08%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.45%
Draw 30.93%
Away Win 32.62%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.92%
Under 2.5 63.08%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.82%
No 56.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.61% 21.69 10.23% 9.77 85.16% 1.17
-1.5 14.84% 6.74 — 85.16% 1.17
-1.0 14.84% 6.74 21.74% 4.6 63.41% 1.58
-0.5 36.59% 2.73 — 63.41% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.59% 2.73 29.36% 3.41 34.05% 2.94
+0.5 65.95% 1.52 — 34.05% 2.94
+1.0 65.95% 1.52 20.76% 4.82 13.29% 7.52
+1.5 86.71% 1.15 — 13.29% 7.52
+2.0 86.71% 1.15 9.33% 10.72 3.96% 25.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.