Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
59.0%
Fair Odds 1.7
Draw
22.52%
Fair Odds 4.44
Away Win
18.49%
Fair Odds 5.41
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.94% Fair Odds 10.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.7 —
Draw 4.44 —
Away Win 5.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.94% 10.06
2 1-1 9.85% 10.16
3 2-0 9.47% 10.56
4 1-0 9.38% 10.66
5 3-1 6.7% 14.93
6 3-0 6.38% 15.68
7 2-2 5.22% 19.15
8 1-2 5.17% 19.35
9 0-1 4.87% 20.52
10 0-0 4.64% 21.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.64%
21.54
4.87%
20.52
2.56%
39.08
0.9%
111.66
0.24%
425.35
0.05%
2024.29
1
9.38%
10.66
9.85%
10.16
5.17%
19.35
1.81%
55.27
0.47%
210.57
0.1%
1003.01
2
9.47%
10.56
9.94%
10.06
5.22%
19.15
1.83%
54.73
0.48%
208.46
0.1%
993.05
3
6.38%
15.68
6.7%
14.93
3.52%
28.45
1.23%
81.27
0.32%
309.6
0.07%
1474.93
4
3.22%
31.05
3.38%
29.57
1.78%
56.33
0.62%
160.95
0.16%
613.12
0.03%
2915.45
5
1.3%
76.86
1.37%
73.2
0.72%
139.43
0.25%
398.41
0.07%
1517.45
0.01%
7246.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.8% · Fair: 55.44
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.73% 13.27%
1.5 59.94% 40.06%
2.5 32.87% 67.13%
3.5 14.65% 85.35%
4.5 5.45% 94.55%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.64% 21.54
1 14.25% 7.02
2 21.88% 4.57
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.18% 5.82
5+ 19.66% 5.09
Over 2.5 59.23% Under 2.5 40.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 59.00%
Draw 22.52%
Away Win 18.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.23%
Under 2.5 40.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.38%
No 43.62%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 18.06% 5.54 18.22% 5.49 63.72% 1.57
-1.5 36.28% 2.76 — 63.72% 1.57
-1.0 36.28% 2.76 23.53% 4.25 40.19% 2.49
-0.5 59.81% 1.67 — 40.19% 2.49
0 (PK) 59.81% 1.67 21.12% 4.74 19.07% 5.24
+0.5 80.92% 1.24 — 19.07% 5.24
+1.0 80.92% 1.24 12.23% 8.18 6.84% 14.61
+1.5 93.16% 1.07 — 6.84% 14.61
+2.0 93.16% 1.07 4.92% 20.32 1.92% 52.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.