Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.12%
Fair Odds 1.81
Draw
24.19%
Fair Odds 4.13
Away Win
20.69%
Fair Odds 4.83
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.74% Fair Odds 9.31

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.81 —
Draw 4.13 —
Away Win 4.83 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.74% 9.31
2 1-0 10.23% 9.78
3 2-1 9.88% 10.12
4 2-0 9.41% 10.63
5 3-1 6.06% 16.51
6 0-1 5.84% 17.14
7 3-0 5.77% 17.33
8 1-2 5.64% 17.74
9 0-0 5.56% 17.99
10 2-2 5.19% 19.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
5.84%
17.14
3.06%
32.64
1.07%
93.26
0.28%
355.24
0.06%
1692.05
1
10.23%
9.78
10.74%
9.31
5.64%
17.74
1.97%
50.68
0.52%
193.09
0.11%
919.12
2
9.41%
10.63
9.88%
10.12
5.19%
19.28
1.82%
55.09
0.48%
209.86
0.1%
999.0
3
5.77%
17.33
6.06%
16.51
3.18%
31.44
1.11%
89.82
0.29%
342.23
0.06%
1628.66
4
2.65%
37.67
2.79%
35.88
1.46%
68.34
0.51%
195.27
0.13%
744.05
0.03%
3546.1
5
0.98%
102.38
1.03%
97.5
0.54%
185.7
0.19%
530.5
0.05%
2020.2
0.01%
9615.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.22% · Fair: 81.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.12% 15.88%
1.5 54.9% 45.1%
2.5 28.01% 71.99%
3.5 11.52% 88.48%
4.5 3.94% 96.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.12%
Draw 24.19%
Away Win 20.69%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.68%
No 45.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.88% 6.72 17.13% 5.84 67.99% 1.47
-1.5 32.01% 3.12 — 67.99% 1.47
-1.0 32.01% 3.12 23.85% 4.19 44.14% 2.27
-0.5 55.86% 1.79 — 44.14% 2.27
0 (PK) 55.86% 1.79 22.74% 4.4 21.4% 4.67
+0.5 78.6% 1.27 — 21.4% 4.67
+1.0 78.6% 1.27 13.61% 7.35 7.79% 12.84
+1.5 92.21% 1.08 — 7.79% 12.84
+2.0 92.21% 1.08 5.58% 17.92 2.21% 45.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.