Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.26%
Fair Odds 1.99
Draw
26.17%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
23.57%
Fair Odds 4.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.73% Fair Odds 8.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.99 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 4.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.73% 8.52
2 1-0 11.18% 8.95
3 2-1 9.56% 10.46
4 2-0 9.11% 10.98
5 0-1 7.2% 13.89
6 0-0 6.86% 14.59
7 1-2 6.16% 16.23
8 3-1 5.2% 19.24
9 2-2 5.02% 19.92
10 3-0 4.95% 20.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.86%
14.59
7.2%
13.89
3.78%
26.46
1.32%
75.6
0.35%
288.02
0.07%
1371.74
1
11.18%
8.95
11.73%
8.52
6.16%
16.23
2.16%
46.38
0.57%
176.68
0.12%
841.04
2
9.11%
10.98
9.56%
10.46
5.02%
19.92
1.76%
56.91
0.46%
216.78
0.1%
1031.99
3
4.95%
20.21
5.2%
19.24
2.73%
36.66
0.95%
104.73
0.25%
399.04
0.05%
1901.14
4
2.02%
49.59
2.12%
47.23
1.11%
89.95
0.39%
257.0
0.1%
979.43
0.02%
4672.9
5
0.66%
152.11
0.69%
144.86
0.36%
275.94
0.13%
788.64
0.03%
3003.0
0.01%
14285.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.73% · Fair: 136.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.86% 14.59
1 18.37% 5.44
2 24.62% 4.06
3 22.00% 4.55
4 14.74% 6.79
5+ 13.41% 7.46
Over 2.5 50.15% Under 2.5 49.85%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.26%
Draw 26.17%
Away Win 23.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.15%
Under 2.5 49.85%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.27%
No 47.73%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.44% 8.74 15.55% 6.43 73.01% 1.37
-1.5 26.99% 3.7 — 73.01% 1.37
-1.0 26.99% 3.7 23.89% 4.19 49.12% 2.04
-0.5 50.88% 1.97 — 49.12% 2.04
0 (PK) 50.88% 1.97 24.68% 4.05 24.44% 4.09
+0.5 75.56% 1.32 — 24.44% 4.09
+1.0 75.56% 1.32 15.39% 6.5 9.05% 11.05
+1.5 90.95% 1.1 — 9.05% 11.05
+2.0 90.95% 1.1 6.45% 15.5 2.6% 38.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.