Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.45%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
24.56%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
20.99%
Fair Odds 4.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.94% Fair Odds 9.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 4.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.94% 9.14
2 1-0 10.52% 9.51
3 2-1 9.84% 10.16
4 2-0 9.46% 10.57
5 0-1 6.08% 16.46
6 3-1 5.91% 16.93
7 0-0 5.84% 17.12
8 1-2 5.69% 17.58
9 3-0 5.68% 17.61
10 2-2 5.12% 19.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.84%
17.12
6.08%
16.46
3.16%
31.65
1.1%
91.29
0.28%
351.12
0.06%
1689.19
1
10.52%
9.51
10.94%
9.14
5.69%
17.58
1.97%
50.72
0.51%
195.08
0.11%
938.09
2
9.46%
10.57
9.84%
10.16
5.12%
19.54
1.77%
56.35
0.46%
216.73
0.1%
1041.67
3
5.68%
17.61
5.91%
16.93
3.07%
32.56
1.06%
93.92
0.28%
361.27
0.06%
1736.11
4
2.56%
39.13
2.66%
37.63
1.38%
72.36
0.48%
208.72
0.12%
802.57
0.03%
3861.0
5
0.92%
108.7
0.96%
104.52
0.5%
201.01
0.17%
579.71
0.04%
2232.14
0.01%
10752.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.11% · Fair: 90.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.47% 16.53%
1.5 53.72% 46.28%
2.5 26.94% 73.06%
3.5 10.87% 89.13%
4.5 3.64% 96.36%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.84% 17.12
1 16.59% 6.03
2 23.56% 4.24
3 22.31% 4.48
4 15.84% 6.31
5+ 15.86% 6.31
Over 2.5 54.0% Under 2.5 46.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.45%
Draw 24.56%
Away Win 20.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.0%
Under 2.5 46.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.97%
No 46.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.29% 7.0 16.94% 5.9 68.77% 1.45
-1.5 31.23% 3.2 — 68.77% 1.45
-1.0 31.23% 3.2 23.96% 4.17 44.82% 2.23
-0.5 55.18% 1.81 — 44.82% 2.23
0 (PK) 55.18% 1.81 23.1% 4.33 21.72% 4.6
+0.5 78.28% 1.28 — 21.72% 4.6
+1.0 78.28% 1.28 13.84% 7.22 7.88% 12.7
+1.5 92.12% 1.09 — 7.88% 12.7
+2.0 92.12% 1.09 5.65% 17.68 2.22% 45.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.