Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.51%
Fair Odds 2.2
Draw
28.1%
Fair Odds 3.56
Away Win
26.39%
Fair Odds 3.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.58% Fair Odds 7.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.2 —
Draw 3.56 —
Away Win 3.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.58% 7.95
2 1-0 12.1% 8.27
3 2-1 8.99% 11.12
4 0-1 8.8% 11.37
5 2-0 8.65% 11.56
6 0-0 8.46% 11.82
7 1-2 6.54% 15.29
8 2-2 4.68% 21.38
9 0-2 4.57% 21.86
10 3-1 4.29% 23.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.46%
11.82
8.8%
11.37
4.57%
21.86
1.59%
63.06
0.41%
242.54
0.09%
1165.5
1
12.1%
8.27
12.58%
7.95
6.54%
15.29
2.27%
44.1
0.59%
169.61
0.12%
815.66
2
8.65%
11.56
8.99%
11.12
4.68%
21.38
1.62%
61.68
0.42%
237.19
0.09%
1140.25
3
4.12%
24.26
4.29%
23.32
2.23%
44.86
0.77%
129.38
0.2%
497.76
0.04%
2392.34
4
1.47%
67.85
1.53%
65.24
0.8%
125.47
0.28%
361.93
0.07%
1392.76
0.01%
6711.41
5
0.42%
237.25
0.44%
228.1
0.23%
438.79
0.08%
1265.82
0.02%
4878.05
0.0%
23255.81
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.43% · Fair: 234.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.46% 11.82
1 20.89% 4.79
2 25.80% 3.88
3 21.24% 4.71
4 13.12% 7.62
5+ 10.48% 9.54
Over 2.5 44.85% Under 2.5 55.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.51%
Draw 28.10%
Away Win 26.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.85%
Under 2.5 55.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.18%
No 50.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.56% 11.68 13.82% 7.24 77.62% 1.29
-1.5 22.38% 4.47 — 77.62% 1.29
-1.0 22.38% 4.47 23.62% 4.23 54.0% 1.85
-0.5 46.0% 2.17 — 54.0% 1.85
0 (PK) 46.0% 2.17 26.56% 3.76 27.44% 3.64
+0.5 72.56% 1.38 — 27.44% 3.64
+1.0 72.56% 1.38 17.18% 5.82 10.26% 9.75
+1.5 89.74% 1.11 — 10.26% 9.75
+2.0 89.74% 1.11 7.31% 13.68 2.95% 33.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.