Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.17%
Fair Odds 2.32
Draw
28.96%
Fair Odds 3.45
Away Win
27.88%
Fair Odds 3.59
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.9% Fair Odds 7.75

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.32 —
Draw 3.45 —
Away Win 3.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.9% 7.75
2 1-0 12.4% 8.06
3 0-1 9.63% 10.39
4 0-0 9.26% 10.8
5 2-1 8.64% 11.57
6 2-0 8.31% 12.03
7 1-2 6.71% 14.91
8 0-2 5.01% 19.98
9 2-2 4.49% 22.25
10 3-1 3.86% 25.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.26%
10.8
9.63%
10.39
5.01%
19.98
1.74%
57.63
0.45%
221.68
0.09%
1066.1
1
12.4%
8.06
12.9%
7.75
6.71%
14.91
2.33%
43.01
0.6%
165.43
0.13%
795.54
2
8.31%
12.03
8.64%
11.57
4.49%
22.25
1.56%
64.19
0.4%
246.91
0.08%
1187.65
3
3.71%
26.94
3.86%
25.91
2.01%
49.82
0.7%
143.72
0.18%
552.79
0.04%
2659.57
4
1.24%
80.43
1.29%
77.33
0.67%
148.72
0.23%
429.0
0.06%
1650.17
0.01%
7936.51
5
0.33%
300.12
0.35%
288.6
0.18%
554.94
0.06%
1600.0
0.02%
6172.84
0.0%
29411.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 301.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.26% 10.80
1 22.03% 4.54
2 26.21% 3.82
3 20.79% 4.81
4 12.37% 8.08
5+ 9.34% 10.71
Over 2.5 42.51% Under 2.5 57.49%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.17%
Draw 28.96%
Away Win 27.88%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 42.51%
Under 2.5 57.49%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.73%
No 52.27%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.36% 13.58 12.91% 7.75 79.73% 1.25
-1.5 20.27% 4.93 — 79.73% 1.25
-1.0 20.27% 4.93 23.3% 4.29 56.43% 1.77
-0.5 43.57% 2.3 — 56.43% 1.77
0 (PK) 43.57% 2.3 27.41% 3.65 29.02% 3.45
+0.5 70.98% 1.41 — 29.02% 3.45
+1.0 70.98% 1.41 18.08% 5.53 10.94% 9.14
+1.5 89.06% 1.12 — 10.94% 9.14
+2.0 89.06% 1.12 7.78% 12.86 3.16% 31.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.