Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.93%
Fair Odds 2.5
Draw
30.08%
Fair Odds 3.32
Away Win
29.99%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.24% Fair Odds 7.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.5 —
Draw 3.32 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.24% 7.55
2 1-0 12.73% 7.85
3 0-1 10.85% 9.21
4 0-0 10.44% 9.58
5 2-1 8.08% 12.38
6 2-0 7.77% 12.88
7 1-2 6.88% 14.52
8 0-2 5.64% 17.72
9 2-2 4.2% 23.81
10 3-1 3.28% 30.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.44%
9.58
10.85%
9.21
5.64%
17.72
1.96%
51.12
0.51%
196.62
0.11%
945.18
1
12.73%
7.85
13.24%
7.55
6.88%
14.52
2.39%
41.9
0.62%
161.16
0.13%
774.59
2
7.77%
12.88
8.08%
12.38
4.2%
23.81
1.46%
68.69
0.38%
264.2
0.08%
1270.65
3
3.16%
31.66
3.28%
30.45
1.71%
58.55
0.59%
168.89
0.15%
649.77
0.03%
3125.0
4
0.96%
103.82
1.0%
99.83
0.52%
191.98
0.18%
553.71
0.05%
2127.66
0.01%
10204.08
5
0.24%
425.53
0.24%
409.17
0.13%
786.78
0.04%
2267.57
0.01%
8695.65
0.0%
41666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.24% · Fair: 424.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.48% 29.52%
1.5 34.46% 65.54%
2.5 12.49% 87.51%
3.5 3.55% 96.45%
4.5 0.83% 99.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.44% 9.58
1 23.58% 4.24
2 26.65% 3.75
3 20.08% 4.98
4 11.34% 8.82
5+ 7.91% 12.64
Over 2.5 39.33% Under 2.5 60.67%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.93%
Draw 30.08%
Away Win 29.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.33%
Under 2.5 60.67%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.57%
No 54.43%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.89% 16.98 11.62% 8.61 82.49% 1.21
-1.5 17.51% 5.71 — 82.49% 1.21
-1.0 17.51% 5.71 22.71% 4.4 59.79% 1.67
-0.5 40.21% 2.49 — 59.79% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.21% 2.49 28.52% 3.51 31.27% 3.2
+0.5 68.73% 1.45 — 31.27% 3.2
+1.0 68.73% 1.45 19.36% 5.17 11.91% 8.39
+1.5 88.09% 1.14 — 11.91% 8.39
+2.0 88.09% 1.14 8.44% 11.85 3.47% 28.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.