Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
57.55%
Fair Odds 1.74
Draw
23.31%
Fair Odds 4.29
Away Win
19.14%
Fair Odds 5.23
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.3% Fair Odds 9.71

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.74 —
Draw 4.29 —
Away Win 5.23 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.3% 9.71
2 1-0 10.0% 10.0
3 2-1 9.94% 10.06
4 2-0 9.65% 10.36
5 3-1 6.4% 15.64
6 3-0 6.21% 16.11
7 0-1 5.34% 18.74
8 1-2 5.31% 18.85
9 0-0 5.18% 19.3
10 2-2 5.12% 19.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.18%
19.3
5.34%
18.74
2.75%
36.38
0.94%
105.97
0.24%
411.52
0.05%
1996.01
1
10.0%
10.0
10.3%
9.71
5.31%
18.85
1.82%
54.9
0.47%
213.22
0.1%
1035.2
2
9.65%
10.36
9.94%
10.06
5.12%
19.53
1.76%
56.89
0.45%
220.95
0.09%
1072.96
3
6.21%
16.11
6.4%
15.64
3.29%
30.36
1.13%
88.43
0.29%
343.41
0.06%
1666.67
4
3.0%
33.38
3.09%
32.41
1.59%
62.93
0.55%
183.28
0.14%
711.74
0.03%
3460.21
5
1.16%
86.48
1.19%
83.96
0.61%
163.03
0.21%
474.83
0.05%
1845.02
0.01%
8928.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.48% · Fair: 67.37
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.48% 14.51%
1.5 57.47% 42.53%
2.5 30.44% 69.56%
3.5 13.05% 86.95%
4.5 4.66% 95.34%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.18% 19.30
1 15.34% 6.52
2 22.70% 4.41
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.57% 6.03
5+ 17.81% 5.62
Over 2.5 56.78% Under 2.5 43.22%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 57.55%
Draw 23.31%
Away Win 19.14%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.78%
Under 2.5 43.22%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.97%
No 45.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 16.64% 6.01 17.86% 5.6 65.49% 1.53
-1.5 34.51% 2.9 — 65.49% 1.53
-1.0 34.51% 2.9 23.84% 4.19 41.65% 2.4
-0.5 58.35% 1.71 — 41.65% 2.4
0 (PK) 58.35% 1.71 21.89% 4.57 19.77% 5.06
+0.5 80.23% 1.25 — 19.77% 5.06
+1.0 80.23% 1.25 12.72% 7.86 7.04% 14.2
+1.5 92.95% 1.08 — 7.04% 14.2
+2.0 92.95% 1.08 5.09% 19.65 1.96% 51.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.