Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.91%
Fair Odds 1.93
Draw
25.7%
Fair Odds 3.89
Away Win
22.38%
Fair Odds 4.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.51% Fair Odds 8.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.93 —
Draw 3.89 —
Away Win 4.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.51% 8.69
2 1-0 11.18% 8.95
3 2-1 9.67% 10.34
4 2-0 9.39% 10.65
5 0-1 6.85% 14.59
6 0-0 6.65% 15.03
7 1-2 5.93% 16.86
8 3-1 5.42% 18.46
9 3-0 5.26% 19.02
10 2-2 4.98% 20.08
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.65%
15.03
6.85%
14.59
3.53%
28.33
1.21%
82.52
0.31%
320.51
0.06%
1555.21
1
11.18%
8.95
11.51%
8.69
5.93%
16.86
2.04%
49.12
0.52%
190.77
0.11%
925.93
2
9.39%
10.65
9.67%
10.34
4.98%
20.08
1.71%
58.48
0.44%
227.12
0.09%
1102.54
3
5.26%
19.02
5.42%
18.46
2.79%
35.85
0.96%
104.43
0.25%
405.52
0.05%
1968.5
4
2.21%
45.28
2.27%
43.96
1.17%
85.36
0.4%
248.63
0.1%
965.25
0.02%
4694.84
5
0.74%
134.77
0.76%
130.84
0.39%
254.07
0.14%
740.19
0.03%
2873.56
0.01%
13888.89
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.83% · Fair: 121.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.65% 15.03
1 18.03% 5.55
2 24.43% 4.09
3 22.07% 4.53
4 14.95% 6.69
5+ 13.86% 7.22
Over 2.5 50.88% Under 2.5 49.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.91%
Draw 25.70%
Away Win 22.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.88%
Under 2.5 49.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.32%
No 47.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.39% 8.07 16.12% 6.2 71.49% 1.4
-1.5 28.51% 3.51 — 71.49% 1.4
-1.0 28.51% 3.51 24.08% 4.15 47.41% 2.11
-0.5 52.59% 1.9 — 47.41% 2.11
0 (PK) 52.59% 1.9 24.22% 4.13 23.2% 4.31
+0.5 76.8% 1.3 — 23.2% 4.31
+1.0 76.8% 1.3 14.76% 6.77 8.43% 11.86
+1.5 91.57% 1.09 — 8.43% 11.86
+2.0 91.57% 1.09 6.06% 16.5 2.37% 42.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.