Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
49.26%
Fair Odds 2.03
Draw
26.77%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
23.97%
Fair Odds 4.17
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.01% Fair Odds 8.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.03 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 4.17 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.01% 8.33
2 1-0 11.66% 8.58
3 2-1 9.43% 10.61
4 2-0 9.15% 10.92
5 0-1 7.65% 13.07
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.19% 16.17
8 3-1 4.93% 20.27
9 2-2 4.86% 20.59
10 3-0 4.79% 20.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
7.65%
13.07
3.94%
25.38
1.35%
73.93
0.35%
287.11
0.07%
1392.76
1
11.66%
8.58
12.01%
8.33
6.19%
16.17
2.12%
47.09
0.55%
182.85
0.11%
887.31
2
9.15%
10.92
9.43%
10.61
4.86%
20.59
1.67%
59.98
0.43%
232.94
0.09%
1131.22
3
4.79%
20.87
4.93%
20.27
2.54%
39.35
0.87%
114.61
0.22%
445.04
0.05%
2159.83
4
1.88%
53.18
1.94%
51.63
1.0%
100.26
0.34%
292.06
0.09%
1133.79
0.02%
5494.51
5
0.59%
169.38
0.61%
164.45
0.31%
319.28
0.11%
930.23
0.03%
3610.11
0.01%
17543.86
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 161.0
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 49.26%
Draw 26.77%
Away Win 23.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.92%
No 49.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.66% 9.38 15.2% 6.58 74.14% 1.35
-1.5 25.86% 3.87 — 74.14% 1.35
-1.0 25.86% 3.87 24.0% 4.17 50.13% 1.99
-0.5 49.87% 2.01 — 50.13% 1.99
0 (PK) 49.87% 2.01 25.26% 3.96 24.87% 4.02
+0.5 75.13% 1.33 — 24.87% 4.02
+1.0 75.13% 1.33 15.75% 6.35 9.13% 10.96
+1.5 90.87% 1.1 — 9.13% 10.96
+2.0 90.87% 1.1 6.54% 15.28 2.59% 38.68

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.