Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.59%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
29.29%
Fair Odds 3.41
Away Win
28.12%
Fair Odds 3.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.0% Fair Odds 7.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.41 —
Away Win 3.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.0% 7.69
2 1-0 12.62% 7.92
3 0-1 9.92% 10.08
4 0-0 9.63% 10.38
5 2-1 8.51% 11.75
6 2-0 8.27% 12.1
7 1-2 6.69% 14.94
8 0-2 5.11% 19.57
9 2-2 4.38% 22.81
10 3-1 3.72% 26.9
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.63%
10.38
9.92%
10.08
5.11%
19.57
1.75%
57.0
0.45%
221.39
0.09%
1074.11
1
12.62%
7.92
13.0%
7.69
6.69%
14.94
2.3%
43.51
0.59%
168.98
0.12%
820.34
2
8.27%
12.1
8.51%
11.75
4.38%
22.81
1.51%
66.43
0.39%
258.0
0.08%
1253.13
3
3.61%
27.71
3.72%
26.9
1.91%
52.23
0.66%
152.14
0.17%
590.67
0.03%
2865.33
4
1.18%
84.6
1.22%
82.14
0.63%
159.49
0.22%
464.47
0.06%
1805.05
0.01%
8771.93
5
0.31%
322.89
0.32%
313.48
0.16%
608.64
0.06%
1773.05
0.01%
6896.55
0.0%
33333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.3% · Fair: 332.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.63% 10.38
1 22.54% 4.44
2 26.37% 3.79
3 20.57% 4.86
4 12.03% 8.31
5+ 8.85% 11.30
Over 2.5 41.45% Under 2.5 58.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.59%
Draw 29.29%
Away Win 28.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.45%
Under 2.5 58.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.95%
No 53.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.03% 14.23 12.67% 7.89 80.3% 1.25
-1.5 19.7% 5.08 — 80.3% 1.25
-1.0 19.7% 5.08 23.28% 4.3 57.02% 1.75
-0.5 42.98% 2.33 — 57.02% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.98% 2.33 27.73% 3.61 29.29% 3.41
+0.5 70.71% 1.41 — 29.29% 3.41
+1.0 70.71% 1.41 18.3% 5.46 10.99% 9.1
+1.5 89.01% 1.12 — 10.99% 9.1
+2.0 89.01% 1.12 7.83% 12.77 3.16% 31.65

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.